On 2 April Brian Nichols, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, said that Cuba is experiencing a “key moment” as the population lacks “electricity, food and work, and the solution is democracy".
Analysis:
US and Cuban officials regularly attack each other on ideological grounds, but Nichols’ comments, made during a visit to Spain, have added significance in the light of the protests over shortages that broke out in various Cuban cities on 17 March. Nichols said there were reasons for “hope” because of the street protests and despite the plight of “over one thousand political prisoners”. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel had earlier claimed coverage of the protests was “exaggerated and out of proportion” and manipulated by US social media to try and create a “scenario to look like serious events were happening”.
- The Cuban government is hoping to stabilise the political situation by reducing power cuts and food shortages. To this end state-run media reported on 31 March that a shipment of 90,000 tonnes (t) of Russian oil (about 660,000 barrels) had arrived in the country. This was the first shipment of its kind from Russia since 2022.
- According to the energy & mines minister, Vicente de la O Levy, Cuba needs 8m t of oil every year, of which 3m are produced locally. Cuba has also depended on shipments from Venezuela and Mexico, but these have declined in recent years.
- Cuban economist Omar Everleny Pérez says Russia is committed to helping Cuba; he hopes that Moscow will offer credit for the purchase of fuel, wheat, fertiliser, and other essential inputs. An acute wheat shortage has hit supplies of bread.
- Jorge Piñón, an energy expert at the University of Texas, says the Russian crude oil shipment, which he values at US$46m will help ease the power cuts, but that it is too early to tell if regular shipments will resume.
Looking Ahead: It is not clear whether the Díaz-Canel government can effectively alleviate the economic crisis in the short term. The Russian oil shipment is estimated to cover Cuban energy needs over the next 35 days, but it is not known if more will follow. The risk of new protests is likely to remain high.
