In conclusion and returning briefly to the eight headlines dating back six years ago, the fact that there has been little change underlines a somewhat disappointing but unavoidable reality. The drugs business is profitable, highly violent, and deeply embedded in Latin American economies and political systems. Put simply, it is not going to go away anytime soon. Massive demand for illicit drugs coming from the United States and other relatively wealthy countries tends to call forth the necessary supply. If one cartel is neutralised, or otherwise removed from the picture, new criminal organisations quickly spring up to fill the vacuum left behind it.
While both the business and government efforts to eliminate illicit drugs will continue evolving, there appears to be no single ‘silver bullet’ or policy recommendation capable of guaranteeing short term anti-narcotics success. According to US foreign policy think tank Responsible Statecraft, “there will be no quick fix to the current drug crisis, only multipronged solutions that address both the supply and demand of fentanyl”.
On a more positive note, tackling not just one but a combination of the areas covered by the eight headlines is likely to yield some results. Any government that can meaningfully pursue strategies to break up the big cartels, follow the money trail tackling the money laundering of billion-dollar revenues, improve the criminal justice system, and restore control of prisons is likely to register perhaps modest but still important progress.
That said, it is also true that the fentanyl crisis introduces some genuinely new elements into an already complex drugs equation. The most important of these is that production of the drug is no longer tied to plant cultivation in particular geographic locations, vulnerable to weather and government-led eradication efforts. With the right precursor chemicals, fentanyl can be produced anywhere in hard-to-detect clandestine laboratories. A very literal response would therefore be to say that the arrival of fentanyl is eroding the drug crops near- monopoly enjoyed within Latin America by the Mexican and Colombian cartels, while triggering a consumer shift away from cocaine.
That too would be an oversimplification. The Mexican cartels in particular have shown their ability to adapt to the threats and opportunities presented by fentanyl. They have maintained the cocaine business, while lacing some of their product with fentanyl. In the face of US-China tensions, they have exploited a window of opportunity to become major fentanyl producers in their own right. With production no longer tied to illicit crop-growing areas, they have nevertheless pursued comparative advantage by efficiently sourcing precursor chemicals and hiring qualified chemists. At the same time, they are innovating by selling fentanyl-laced painkillers through networks of pharmacies.
Reports of the ‘death of cocaine’ are much exaggerated. Changing patterns of drug consumption can take years. Under certain conditions marijuana is now legal in many parts of the US, but more than half a century since they began selling it, the cartels still have a small stake in the business. Demand for cocaine appears relatively stable, with the current low prices likely to be one of many cyclical ups and downs that the industry has frequently experienced.
