While 94% of people consulted in a recent Poliarquía survey believe President Cristina Fernández will win re-election on 23 October, 70% of respondents also said they are not interested in the upcoming contest. Interestingly, 16% said the opposition had failed to capitalise on the anti-Kirchnerista vote because of its divisiveness, an element that re-emerged in full force over the past week in relation to alleged plans to reform the constitution to change the country’s political system from a presidential to a parliamentarian structure.
Rumours of an initiative aimed at keeping Fernández in power beyond 2014 -when she would be constitutionally barred from seeking a third mandate if she were re-elected - first emerged in February from within the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FPV) [WR-11-09]. Last May, the province of San Juan joined Salta as one of two provinces where the governor can serve three consecutive terms in office. On that occasion, Governor José Luis Gioja’s reference to former president Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007), who reformed the constitution of Santa Cruz province to allow for indefinite re-election, as his inspiration for the reform in San Juan did not sit well with either the opposition nor the ruling FPV.
The main problem for the FPV is that continuation in power seems to be a key element of its hold on provincial authority. For example, on 23 October, six governors – Daniel Scioli (Buenos Aires), Guido Insfrán (Formosa), Daniel Peralta (Santa Cruz), Oscar Jorge (La Pampa), Sergio Uribarri (Entre Ríos) and Gioja- will compete for re-election. Furthermore, Eduardo Fellner (2003-2007) will also try to re-capture the governorship of Jujuy after a four-year hiatus in which another Kirchnerista, Walter Barrionuevo, governed the province. Another five FPV governors have already secured the continuation of their mandate – Juan Manuel Urtubey (Salta), Luis Beder Herrera (La Rioja), Maurice Closs (Misiones), José Alperovich (Tucumán) and Jorge Capitanich (Chaco). This means that 13 out of 24 jurisdictions (23 provinces and the federal district of Buenos Aires City) will remain not only in FPV hands but also in the hands of those who have governed it for at least one term.
The government has tried to stay well clear of the latest row, involving three prominent members of the opposition. Presidential candidate Elisa Carrió of the Coalición Cívica (CC), who is polling very poorly, started the controversy saying: “Under the pretext of a constitutional reform to move towards a parliamentarian system hides [the figure of] indefinite re-election, and this was already confirmed yesterday [3 October] by the president’s main ideologue, Ernesto Laclau”. She then went on to say that presidential candidate Hermes Binner, of the Frente Amplio Progresista (FAP), who appears second in the Poliarquía vote projection with 14%-16% backing, had already entered a secret deal with Fernández to give way to said reform. Carrió called it the “Olivos Pact II” in reference to the bipartisan agreement that allowed Carlos Menem (1989-1999) to reform the constitution in 1994 and seek re-election in 1995.
Though Fernández is likely to hold a majority in both chambers of congress after the general election, she would need a two-thirds special majority to be able to reform the magna carta. Binner’s Partido Socialista, which has always backed a parliamentarian system over a presidential one, could provide the necessary support. Binner, however, has said that “if someday we talk about a constitutional reform, the first chapter we have to define is that of no support to re-re-election”. But neither Carrió nor Ricardo Alfonsín, presidential candidate for Unión para el Desarrollo Social (Udeso), who appears third in the Poliarquía vote with a projection of 10% to 12%, seem to believe him. As election day gets closer, the opposition appears more divided, allowing Fernández to capitalise on their constant spats and garner even more support.
- Fernández above 50%
According to the latest Poliarquía poll, President Fernández has 49.3% voting intentions, but, once undecideds are added, the projection puts her at between 52% and 55%. Such an outcome would give her victory in the first round since to win outright, a candidate needs at least 40% of the vote with a 10 percentage point difference with the runner up. Interestingly, however, Fernández gets more support from men than from women. The poll also revealed a big divide in the electorate by level of education: Fernández leads in the segment of those who completed primary school only; Alfonsín wins amongst those with secondary school education; and Binner is the favourite amongst those with higher education degrees.
