The judiciary’s decision to consider appeals against the opposition Partido Liberal Independiente (PLI), which is providing the ballot spot for second-placed candidate Fabio Gadea, is generating last-minute uncertainty ahead of the general elections on 6 November. Some claim the move by the supreme electoral court (CSE) and supreme court of justice (CSJ) –controlled by President Daniel Ortega – is designed to cause confusion among voters, underlining Ortega’s anxiety despite his convincing lead in the polls. Others discern possible maneuvering which could well take place after the election if Ortega fails to manage his (unlikely) objective of securing a two-thirds majority for his Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) in the new legislature.
CSJ magistrate Rafael Solís last week confirmed that the CSJ’s constitutional chamber was considering whether to admit the appeals which have come from within the PLI itself, amid a flare-up of a longstanding internal spat as to who the PLI’s rightful legal representative is. Back in February, the CSE appeared to end the dispute between the three different groupings in the PLI-Unidad Nicaragüense por la Esperanza alliance – led by Rollin Tobie Forbes, an ally of Virgilio Godoy Reyes, former Vice President under the Violeta Chamorro government (1990-1997); José Venancio Berríos, a former TV personality and Indalecio Rodríquez, an ally of the dissident liberal Eduardo Montealegre. The court ruled in favour of Rodríquez who then offered the PLI’s ballot spot to Gadea, whose electoral platform includes Montealegre’s Movimiento Vamos con Eduardo and the dissident Sandinista party, Movimiento Renovador Sandinista. It is positioning itself as the “anti-pact” option – a reference to the power-sharing arrangement between Ortega and former president Arnoldo Alemán (1997-2002), the presidential candidate for the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC).
Pointing out that the deadline to contest candidacies has already expired, Rodríquez together with Montealegre and other members of the same faction have slammed the CSJ’s apparent willingness to revisit the case and consider calls by Godoy and Berríos to exclude the PLI-UNE candidates as evidence of Ortega’s uncertainty ahead of the vote. The most recent poll by Cid-Gallup, published in national daily El Nuevo Diario on 30 September, showed Ortega on 45.8% support, well above the 35% plus five-point advantage necessary to win in the first round (and 40% for an outright victory), while Gadea is running on 33.5% and Alemán third on 10.1%. Yet the poll shows that only 68.9% of respondents were certain as to who they would vote for, a figure which local analysis monthly Envío points out in its August edition is worth noting given what it calls the ‘Güegüense’ factor, whereby people tell pollsters what it was assumed they wanted to hear, or pretend they had not decided because they doubt the polls are truly secret and fear reprisals. This “factor”, which is named after a figure in Nicaraguan folklore (see sidebar), was attributed to Ortega’s surprise defeat in 1990 at the hands of Chamorro.
The ultimate exclusion of Gadea from the presidential race is unlikely given Ortega’s interest in keeping the opposition divided. Ortega’s current approval rating suggests he is near the 47% required for a majority in the 92-seat legislature (with the exception of two seats assigned to the outgoing president and vice-president, seats are picked from closed list proportional systems, 20 from a national list and the rest from 17 departmental/regional constituencies). But, he is unlikely to muster the two-thirds majority required for key legislation such as changes to the constitution.
Hence the interest for the Ortega-controlled CSE in maintaining the possibility of ultimately ruling against the PLI-UNE candidacies which could see elected deputies subsequently denied their seats – for which there is already a precedent: in 2007, Alejandro Bolaños Davis, the nephew of former President Enrique Bolaños Geyer (2002-2007) who was elected for the minority opposition Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense, lost his seat after the CSE ruled that he was not eligible to stand following revelations that he was not born in Nicaragua - a violation of the constitution and electoral law.
The final word on observation
While uncertainty over the UNE-PLI candidates looks set to drag on, some clarity has emerged with regard to the other issue which has dominated the campaigning period – electoral observation. Having apparently performed a U-turn in August over his initial rejection of foreign delegations [WR-11-34], President Ortega received a fillip after the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union (EU) both appeared to accept his controversial distinction between the figure of the “observer” and “accompanier” [WR-11-05], a difference which would imply restrictions and less autonomy for the latter. The OAS and EU have announced that they would be sending delegations of 80 and 100 “accompaniers” respectively.
In a further boost for the President, OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza said that while the OAS was aware of certain “criticisms” of Ortega’s candidacy (which violates the constitution), there were no plans to discuss it before the OAS - suggesting that the issue of Ortega’s candidacy is likely to be brushed under the carpet by the international community.
Insulza’s remarks, and the agreement by the OAS and the EU to send “accompaniers”, might amount to an implicit endorsement of Ortega’s candidacy, but other organisations are proving less amenable. The US-based Carter Center is refusing to observe the election, objecting to new CSE regulations on observer missions, released last month, which include a provision restricting access for observers. This new provision was also rejected by the two national watchdogs, Etica y Transparencia (EyT) and Instituto para el Desarrollo de la Democracia (Ipade). Neither has been accredited. As in the November 2008 municipal elections, when Ortega refused to allow observer delegations, both insist that they will send observers regardless.
- El Güegüense
Also known as Macho Ratón, El Güegüense is a satirical drama, believed to date back to the 1600s. The plot is based on encounters between the Spanish colonial authorities and the central character, El Güegüense, a powerful elder figure in pre-Hispanic Nicaragua. Through a series of clever verbal manoeuvres, El Güegüense defends himself against charges levelled by the Spanish authorities, outwardly appearing to comply with authority while working subtly to undermine it. Considered an expression of protest against colonial rule, the archetype is commonly invoked to refer to an electorate skilled at masking their true voting intent as well as a more general critique of corrupt and greedy authority.
