On 10 October 46 prominent writers and politicians in Mexico subscribed to adverts in the Mexican press backing a call for coalition government. This was the first significant move in the presidential election campaign, which officially opens on 18 December and will culminate in the elections on 1 July 2012. So far there are no official candidates, only prospective candidates for their parties’ presidential nominations. The opinion polls, however, all point to an easy victory for Enrique Peña Nieto, the ex- governor of the Estado de México and the likely candidate for the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI).
A poll by the Gabinete de Comunicación Estratégica (GCE) found that 63% of Mexicans thought that the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), which won the presidency in 2000 and then again in 2006, should not continue in power. A staggering 66% thought that the PRI, which ruled the country from the end of the Mexican Revolution (or more exactly 1930) until 2000, should return to power.
The GCE pollsters interviewed 3,000 people across the country from 19 to 25 September and found a widespread disappointment with the PAN. The PAN has three declared candidates running for its presidential nomination in 2012. They are: Ernesto Cordero, a former finance minister and President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa’s presumed choice; Josefina Vázquez Mota, a former education minister under Calderón and welfare minister under President Vicente Fox (2000 to 2006); and Santiago Creel, Fox’s interior minister whom Calderón defeated for the PAN nomination in 2005.
Creel endorsed the coalition call, as did Marcelo Ebrard, the outgoing mayor of Mexico City, and a leading left-wing candidate. Ebrard said that a coalition was the only way to prevent the PRI recovering the presidency. The coalition suggestion is all the more fascinating because it was originally driven by Manlio Fabio Beltrones, the PRI leader in the senate, and the only rival to Peña Nieto for the PRI nomination. Beltrones is now publicly distancing himself from the coalition idea, and surprised many of his supporters by publicly hugging Beltrones at a PRI rally on 8 October.
Beltrones’s hug of Peña Nieto triggered cries of “Unity! Unity!” from the assembled priístas. Beltrones appeared to be acting spontaneously but sceptics claim that the hug was stage-managed by Emilio Gamboa Patrón, a key political operator who was once private secretary to President Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988 to 1994). Salinas is one of Peña Nieto’s supporters.
The list of signatories of the call for a coalition to rule Mexico beyond 2012 stretches beyond politicians: it is headed by Carlos Fuentes, a prominent novelist. Besides Ebrard, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, three times the presidential candidate for the Left (who was probably cheated of victory in 1988), and his son, Lázaro (like Cuauhtémoc a former governor of Michoacán) signed. The Right’s main representative was Creel. The centre was represented by Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a former rector of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico (UNAM).
Ebrard was most outspoken about the threat posed by a PRI government and said that the return of the PRI to the presidency would be an “utter disaster”. He said that a coalition was the only alternative. This statement immediately drew criticism from supporters of the other left-wing contender for the presidency, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who was narrowly defeated by Calderón in 2006. Dolores Padierna, a prominent support of López Obrador, claimed that a coalition was the establishment’s idea for perpetuating neo-liberal economic policies.
Ebrard then made another interesting move on 12 October (see sidebar) which appeared to end his feud with the Roman Catholic Church.
Beltrones’s original coalition idea posited that if the president elected in 2012 did not win a majority of votes, or could not command a majority in congress, then the congress itself should draw up the government’s programme. No Mexican president has had a majority in congress since President Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León (1994 to 2000) lost his majority in the 1997 midterm elections.
Currently prospective candidates are not bound by the electoral law. From 18 December, however, they will have to buy all their advertising spots and space through the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE). The other restriction which kicks on from 18 December is the prohibition on making false allegations about a rival.
The only thing prospective candidates cannot do at the moment, which they will be allowed to do from 18 December, is to ask people to vote for them. Currently they have to couch their appeal on their ideas or records.
- Abortion
Armando Ahued, Mexico City’s top health official, said that from 2007 to 11 October, 105,000 women had applied for an abortion in Mexico City and 63,718 terminations had been carried out by the city medical services. He noted that Mexico City provided prenatal services for all expectant mothers and also helped with adoption if the mother chose not to bring up the child. Ahued reckoned that the private sector had carried out about 50,000 abortions since 2007. Of the public sector abortions carried out since 2007 5% were for minors; 53% were for women between 18 and 25; 20% for women between 26 and 30; and 22% for women over 30.
