If opinion polls are anything to go by, even if Efraín Ríos Montt beats off the remaining legal challenges to his candidacy, he will not stand much of a chance come voting day in November. The most recent survey, conducted by Vox Latina, shows Oscar Berger, of the right-of-centre Gran Alianza Nacional (Gana) even further in the lead, with 44% of voting preferences - 7.1 points more than in the previous poll by the same firm. Also up, by 4 points to 17.1%, is secondrunner Alvaro Colom, of the leftist coalition Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE). As to Ríos Montt, he has fallen from third to fifth place, polling only 3.3% (he has been overtaken by Leonel López of the Partido de Avanzada Nacional (PAN), with 4.1%, and Fritz García-Gallón of the Partido Unionista (PU), with 3.9%.
A problem an increasing number of observers have been underlining is that the polls, while providing a fairly accurate reading of urban opinion, may not wholly reflect the situation in small towns and rural areas. A growing body of anecdotal evidence suggests that support there for Ríos Montt runs much higher than in the cities, even among the Indians who suffered the brunt of his brutal counterinsurgency methods in 1982-83, when he headed a military government.
The reason for this is simple. The government of Ríos Montt's Frente Republicano Guatemalteco (FRG) is seen as the provider of low-cost fertiliser, cheap credit, free healthcare, a higher minimum wage, roads and schools -- and, crucially, title deeds to the land hitherto precariously occupied by thousands of peasant farmers. The FRG portrays itself as the only party that really stands up for the poor in Guatemala, against the `oligarchy' embodied in Berger's coalition (and, needless to add, unlike the left which proved unable to protect peasants and villagers during the internal war).
An indirect recognition of this situation has been provided by the joint effort of indigenous organisations to set up, earlier this week, the Comisión Consultiva Maya (Cocoma), an NGO devoted to informing the indigenous population of the electoral issues and procedures, and to encourage a high turnout. The 23 ethnic Maya groups account for about 60% of Guatemala's 12m inhabitants.
Two more dropouts
Two more presidential candidates have withdrawn from the race -- but not in order to ensure a united opposition stand. On 12 August, Rigoberto Quemé stepped down as candidate of the leftist Alianza Nueva Nación (ANN), in disgust at internal squabbling over candidacies. Quemé was the first Indian ever to register as a presidential candidate. On 13 August, Ricardo Bueso resigned as candidate of the Christian Democrat party (DCG), in protest against the ruling allowing Ríos Montt to run. His running-mate Estuardo Cuestas also resigned.
Former President Vinicio Cerezo, secretary-general of the DCG, says the party might endorse another of the candidates still in the race - but not Berger.
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