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Andean Group - March 2011 (ISSN 1741-4466)

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: PERU

On 7 March Peru was lauded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) for its economic performance. The IMF noted that Peru is among the five Latin American countries that best weathered the recent global financial crisis, noting that Peru's responsible long-term stable fiscal and financial policies helped insulate it from the crisis. The central bank's independence, stability and credibility were cited as a critical strength, though the Fund recommended that “Peru could further insulate the selection of central bank board members from the political cycle". The UNDP's in-country coordinator, Rebecca Arias, similarly said on 7 March that Peru was better equipped to deal with future crises. According to figures released by the Banco Central de Reserva de Perú real annual GDP rose 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010, bringing full year real annual GDP growth to 8.8%. In such a scenario it's not surprising that the central bank is tightening monetary policy. In January it raised benchmark interest rates from 3% to 3.25%. In 2010 inflation was 2.08%. Inflation in January 2011, though subdued by regional standards (0.39%), was the highest for two years and brought the annual rate to 2.17%.The central bank is forecasting real GDP growth of about 6.5% in 2011.

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