According to Datanálisis -Venezuela's most reliable pollsters- just 30.8% of Venezuelans continue to actively support the president, while 67.5% reject him. Although Chávez 's counterparts in Bolivia and Peru can only dream of an approval rating as high as Chávez 's, the new figures do show how far he has fallen from grace: his approval rating was an amazing 91.9% back in early 1999.
Chávez 's popularity recovered briefly after the failed general strike, but is declining again as the country's economy continues to freefall. Current predictions are of a 14% to 16% GDP contraction in the second quarter, following on from a record first-quarter fall of 29%.
The government is understandably keen to see the referendum pushed back to next year, when they hope to see some signs of economic recovery. Vice-President José Vicente Rangel recently declared it would be 'impossible' to hold the referendum in 2003, a point of view also controversially expressed by army commander-in-chief General Jorge García, who earned a State Department rebuke for his comments.
Meanwhile, the government and opposition still can't agree on the appointment of the fifth and decisive member of the election council. One path to a solution -that the supreme court make the decision rather than the deadlocked national assembly- drew dire warnings from national assembly president Francisco Ameliach, who said there was a 'risk of disturbances' if the court made such a momentous political decision.
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