LatinNews Daily - 18 September 2026

*International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has said that Mexico’s 2027 budget proposal, delivered to congress on 8 September, is “more credible” than prior budgets given its reliance on revenue-raising measures and “more realistic economic assumptions”. However, it warned that the targeted deficit reduction is likely not enough to slow down rising debt-to-GDP over time, which it said was a downside risk to the country’s BBB- rating with a stable outlook. The budget proposal targets a fiscal deficit of 3.9% in 2027, “less ambitious” than the 3.5% goal set in the government’s April pre-criteria guidance, and a continuation of the roughly 0.2- percentage point annual consolidation pace set in the 2026 budget, according to Fitch. That April document had also projected GDP growth of 1.9-2.9% for 2027, while the final budget proposal assumes a lower, “more realistic” range of 1.5-2.5% (2.0% midpoint), which Fitch said is broadly in line with private-sector forecasts and its own 1.8% estimate. Fitch projects federal public debt will reach 58.0% of GDP in 2026, converging toward the BBB rating median. By Fitch’s estimate, a deficit of around 2.5%, would be needed to stabilise debt. It also flagged state-run oil company Pemex as a continuing risk, given a planned M$81bn (US$4.72bn, 0.3% of GDP) liquidity injection amid weaker refining output. Nevertheless, this support represents a significant reduction on that included in the 2026 budget, which outlines M$263.5bn in support for the company.

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