*Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) has increased its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.5% from a previous (May) forecast of 1.1%. In its quarterly report for the April-June period, Banxico noted that the increased forecast follows
a rebound in the Mexican economy in the second quarter, after a contraction in Q1. However, it equally warned of
“prolonged uncertainty” regarding trade relations with the US following the US government’s decision to
trigger the annual review mechanism of the US-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA), rather than extending the deal, as well as broader geopolitical tensions. In its report, Banxico raised the range for GDP growth this year to between 1.0% and 2.0%, compared to between 0.5% and 1.7% in the previous quarterly report. The bank has, however, slightly lowered its 2027 growth forecast from 2.1% in its previous report to 2.0% with a range between 1.2% and 2.8%.
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