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LatinNews Daily - 06 May 2026

In brief: Brazil’s central bank maintains cautious tone on rate cuts

*The monetary policy committee (Copom) of Brazil’s central bank (BCB) has released the minutes from its meeting on 28-29 April in which it lowered the country’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) to 14.50%. Last week’s rate cut was the second consecutive 25-basis-point cut, but the latest Copom minutes did not clarify whether there would be another rate cut in the next committee meeting, which is scheduled for 16-17 June. The minutes reiterated the need to monitor the economic impacts of the conflict in the Middle East before deciding the next steps for monetary policy. Despite not revealing whether another rate cut was on the horizon in the June Copom meeting, the minutes hailed the results of the “contractionary level” of the Selic, which was held at 15.0% from July 2025-March 2026, suggesting that this period created “conditions under which adjustments to the pace and extension of this calibration… can be made”. According to the latest forecasts by private sector analysts consulted by the BCB, the Selic is expected to close this year at 13.0%, and annual inflation for 2026 is expected to reach 4.89% - above the upper bound of the official target range of 3.0% +/-1.5.

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