In the 2022 election, Lula forged an alliance with his former rival Alckmin to defeat the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Alckmin is currently a member of the centre-left Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB), but he had previously spent decades as a member of the centre-right Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB), which until the past decade was a dominant force in Brazil’s right-of-centre space and the main rival of Lula’s left-wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). As a former governor of São Paulo state (2001-2006, 2011-2018), Alckmin ran in two presidential elections, losing to Lula in the second round of the 2006 presidential election and not making it to the run-off of the 2018 election.
With the return of a Lula-Alckmin ticket in 2026, it appears that Lula is seeking to repeat the winning strategy of 2022, with Lula galvanising left-wing supporters and Alckmin presenting a moderate stance and reassuring right-of-centre voters that a Lula administration will not drift too far to the left. The 2022 election also saw efforts by the Lula-Alckmin campaign to take advantage of anti-incumbent frustrations against the Bolsonaro administration, although now in 2026 it is the Lula government that would suffer from any anti-incumbent feelings driven by popular frustrations regarding issues such as crime, the cost of living, or a stagnant economy and job market.
Polling data
Recent opinion surveys have suggested that the 2026 presidential race could prove to be very close. Polling firm AtlasIntel released survey results on 25 March which showed that, in a projected run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula polled on 46.6% of voter intentions, while Flávio was ahead on 47.6%. On 30 March another pollster, Paraná Pesquisas, released figures showing Lula on 44.1% and Flávio on 45.2% of voter intentions in a projected head-to-head.
On 1 April AtlasIntel released the results of another survey which focused on voters in Brazil’s most populous state, São Paulo. Nearly half of respondents (49%) said they would rather vote for Flávio in a run-off against Lula, who only polled 44% of voter intentions in São Paulo. Lula’s approval rating also stood at 43%, with 56% of São Paulo respondents expressing disapproval of the president. Meanwhile, the current right-wing governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), a Bolsonaro ally who plans to run for re-election in the state, polled 53% approval and 45% disapproval.
When AtlasIntel asked respondents how the current De Freitas administration has performed compared with previous state governments led by PSDB-affiliated governors, such as Alckmin and João Doria (2018-2022), 49.9% said it was doing ‘better’ or ‘much better’ than previous administrations, while 40.1% said De Freitas was doing ‘worse’ or ‘much worse’ than his predecessors. Given that De Freitas, who is expected to endorse Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid, has a higher approval than disapproval rating, the Lula-Alckmin campaign is likely to face an emboldened ‘Bolsonarismo’ movement in the battle to win votes in São Paulo state, home to over a fifth of Brazil’s total population.
It is uncertain if Alckmin’s presence on the campaign trail in São Paulo will bring much benefit to Lula’s presidential bid or to the gubernatorial bid of Fernando Haddad (PT), who until recently served as Lula’s finance minister and is expected to be the main left-wing contender to challenge the re-election of De Freitas.
AtlasIntel’s latest poll for the state showed that 51.3% of respondents said that De Freitas deserves to be re-elected. The survey also asked respondents for their opinions about specific political issues, including crime, fiscal discipline, poverty, education, healthcare, and public transport, among others, and asked whether they thought De Freitas or Haddad would do a better job at addressing each issue. The results showed that De Freitas scored higher on every issue.
Given these recent polling figures, it appears that a right-wing alliance of Flávio and De Freitas supporting each other’s election campaigns is poised to perform well in the country’s most populous state. The Lula-Alckmin presidential campaign, amplified by the Haddad gubernatorial campaign, will likely need strategies to remind voters in São Paulo of the failings of the previous Bolsonaro government and seek to pin the negative reputation of Jair Bolsonaro among centrists and moderate conservatives onto Flávio and De Freitas.
During the previous elections, smaller cities and towns in the rural interior of the state largely voted for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential race and Tarcísio de Freitas for the governorship of São Paulo. But urban voters, especially in the state capital, tended to support Lula and Fernando Haddad, who managed to make it to the second round of the 2022 São Paulo gubernatorial race but ultimately lost to De Freitas.
It is these relatively wealthy and moderately conservative segments of the electorate that both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro will likely seek to win over in São Paulo state. On 31 March Lula began to ramp up his criticisms of Flávio, accusing his Bolsonarista rival of inviting the US government of President Donald Trump to interfere in Brazil’s national affairs.
On 28 March Flávio travelled to the US to attend the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas, where he gave a speech suggesting that the US should “apply diplomatic pressure so that [Brazil’s] institutions function properly”. Lula’s comments appear to be seeking to revive the anti-Trump sentiment that arose in Brazil in mid-2025, when the US imposed steep tariffs on Brazilian exports and Lula’s defiant rhetoric at the time contributed to a temporary rise in his approval ratings.
In the coming months, Lula is expected to seize upon every possible opportunity to highlight to the public that Flávio is not a moderate face of the Bolsonarismo movement but an extension of his far-right father. Meanwhile, another right-wing presidential hopeful has thrown his hat into the ring and also indicated that he plans to take votes away from Flávio.
On 30 March the governor of Goiás state, Ronaldo Caiado, of the big tent party Partido Social Democrático (PSD), announced his bid to run for the presidency. Although the PSD has traditionally described itself as neither right-wing, left-wing, nor centrist, it has in recent years made clear signs of positioning itself on the centre-right.
No polls in recent months indicate that Caiado could win enough votes to advance to the second round. But it is expected that he will also be competing to win over right-of-centre voters or other traditional conservative voters who disapprove of the far-right populist Bolsonarismo movement, the key demographic that both Lula and Flávio are also fighting over.
Ministers step down
According to Brazil’s electoral rules, government ministers must resign six months before an election if they plan to run for public office, such as governorships or members of congress. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin must also resign from government to run as Lula’s running mate. In addition to Alckmin, up to 18 cabinet ministers are expected to step down from government by 4 April, six months before the first round of the presidential and gubernatorial elections on 4 October. Notable ministers planning to run for governorships or in congressional races include Fernando Haddad, who has already stepped down as finance minister; Rui Costa, Lula’s chief of staff; Marina Silva, the environment minister; Simone Tebet, the planning and budget minister; and the institutional relations minister, Gleisi Hoffmann.
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