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Weekly Report - 25 May 2004

Tracking trends

COLOMBIA | Strong industrial growth. Industrial output in Colombia in the first quarter was up 8.7% on the same period of 2003, according to the umbrella industrialists' association, Andi. This has encouraged the view, widespread among private economists, that the economy as a whole might grow this year by 5%, rather than the 4% the government has been predicting. Industrial sales were up 7%, led chiefly by exports (domestic sales were up only 3.3%).
Andi president Luis Carlos Villegas says the first-quarter figures `ratify our perception that, as long as no internal or external shocks turn up and destabilise productive activity, this will definitely be a year of expansion for industry and the economy as a whole'. Expansion was recorded in the third quarter for 22 of the 27 sectors surveyed by Andi. The most dynamic sectors were tobacco, apparel, leather, wood, printing, plastics, domestic appliances, and cars.

ECUADOR | Future of oil. Ecuador could produce about 650,000 barrels per day of oil by 2010, 30% more than at present, if the state oil sector were to invest some US$3bn. This is the conclusion of a joint study by the IDB and the CAF (the Andean Community's development bank).
The state oil company Petroecuador currently produces just under 200,000bpd. This is 39% less than a decade ago, the result of grossly insufficient investment. In that same period, the private sector has more than taken up the slack, with the net result that Ecuador's total oil production has increased by 30%. The commissioning of the OCP heavy-oil pipeline has removed the most important physical bottleneck hindering the expansion of the oil industry. Now Petroecuador has to tackle the investment shortfall - but this means that the state has to find other means of overcoming its low savings capacity.

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