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Caribbean & Central America - October 2006 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Ortega maintains lead over divided Right

Just as he did at this stage of three previous unsuccessful campaigns, Daniel Ortega of the Frente Nacional de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) enjoys a high level of support in the polls for the presidential elections due on 5 November. However, the difference this time around is that the Right are divided; Eduardo Montealegre left the Partido Liberal Constitucional (PLC) in 2005 and formed the dissident Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense (ALN). This gives Ortega a chance of getting the 35%, with a five-point lead over any other candidate, that he needs to win the election. A poll conducted by M&R Consultores showed that 9.6% of voters are undecided, and when this is taken into consideration Ortega's chances of winning in the first round increase; if the undecided voters abstain it would put Montealegre on 29.2% and Ortega on 34.2%, tantalisingly close to the 35% mark.

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