Andean Group - October 2024

Securing the negotiated demobilisation of Colombia’s largest guerrilla group, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), has been the central focus of President Gustavo Petro’s flagship ‘total peace’ initiative. As we explore in the first article of this October 2024 edition of the Latin American Regional Report: Andean Group, the government is now rapidly recalibrating the likelihood of achieving that goal. A bilateral ceasefire expired on 3 August after the government refused to bow to an ELN ultimatum, ending a year of relative peace between the two sides. A deal now seems even more doubtful following a heavy mortar attack on a military base in Arauca department on 17 September, which led Petro to suspend the peace talks.

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