- López Obrador’s popularity
President López Obrador has maintained approval ratings at an unprecedented 60%-70% for nearly six years now, a remarkably consistent performance, especially by regional standards. While there is no denying his popularity it is worth noting, however, that Mexico is somewhat anomalous by regional standards. Respect for the office of president in Mexico means that even unpopular incumbents enjoy half-decent levels of support and never sink to the low double-digit or even single-digit figures not uncommon in most other countries in the region.
Sheinbaum, known for her largely successful leadership of Mexico City (CDMX) (2018-2023), has led the race in electoral surveys since 2022. An Oraculus ‘poll of polls’ at the end of April gave Sheinbaum a massive 23-percentage-point lead (58%-35%) over Gálvez, with the third-placed candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, who is running for the leftist Movimiento Ciudadano (MC), on 8%.
Máynez has been gradually gaining support, but this is actually good for Sheinbaum, since the MC candidate appears to be winning votes at the expense of Gálvez, rather than at hers. Meanwhile, although crime and corruption remain weak points for the López Obrador administration, economic growth has picked up, the currency is stable, and inflation has come down. Enjoying a comfortable position in the race, Sheinbaum has been able to project a calm and authoritative image.
Despite that, there are some positives still in play for Gálvez and her Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition, whose main members are the centrist Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and the right-wing Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). She is widely seen as having performed well and in combative fashion in the second televised presidential debate held on 28 April, where she branded her opponent as the “narco-candidate”. She could strengthen further in the third and last debate which is due on 19 May.
While the gap between Sheinbaum and Gálvez remains large, some local commentators maintain that Sheinbaum has plateaued and Gálvez is enjoying a late surge. One poll, by LaEncuesta.mx on 30 April, narrowed Sheinbaum’s lead over Gálvez to 8.5 percentage points (48.9%-40.4%).
There are of course a number of important unknowns. Opinion polling in Latin America (like elsewhere) is not always accurate and is sometimes manipulated to influence, rather than just to measure, voting intentions. In addition, social media is playing a large part in these elections and the campaign teams for all three candidates may deploy dirty tricks and fake news techniques to try and swing the vote.
A close vote between the two frontrunners could trigger heightened uncertainty, particularly for foreign investors who are currently expecting an uneventful and routine political transition from López Obrador to Sheinbaum. López Obrador has a track record for being a poor loser, having refused for months to accept defeat in the 2006 presidential elections, proclaiming himself as the winner. He has also been conducting a feud with the autonomous national electoral institute (INE) which he accuses of conservative bias.
López Obrador launches attack on anti-corruption lobby
President López Obrador has used his regular morning press conference to accuse María Amparo Casar, the head of the anti-corruption lobby Mexicanos Contra la Corrupción y la Impunidad (MCCI), of defrauding the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) by illicitly claiming insurance after the death of her husband, a Pemex employee, who lost his life falling from an office building in 2004.
López Obrador claimed that the death was suicide but had been presented as accidental to improperly claim the insurance pay-out. MCCI has previously investigated “discrepancies” in Claudia Sheinbaum’s declaration of assets.
Hundreds of private documents and personal details of the MCCI head (including bizarrely her children’s school reports) were then published on the government website, supposedly in support of López Obrador’s allegations. Casar said López Obrador was lying and that the unauthorised publication of her personal data was “an abuse of the apparatus of the state to seek revenge on a citizen”. MCCI said the doxing was “vile”. The organisation is funded by Claudio X González, a wealthy businessman who opposes López Obrador’s government.
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