Latinnews Archive

Latin American Weekly Report - 28 October 1997

Parties lose out to independents;DEFECTORS FROM COPEI & AD CHALLENGE SAEZ'S PRIMACY

To read the political news in Caracas, anyone would be forgiven for not realising that there are still 14 months to go to the next presidential elections, and six until campaigning is formally launched. The reason is simple: among the leaders of the established political parties there is, if the opinion surveys are any guide, no-one who looks like a possible successor to President Rafael Caldera -and independent aspirants seem to be sprouting everywhere.

As many as 70% of the people consulted have developed a distinct aversion to the political parties, and seem ready to back independent candidates -of which there is a growing throng.

First cracks. That the political parties are in disarray is not new. Action Democratica (AD) fell apart when its leadership connived in the ouster of President Carlos Andres Perez -an adeco who won the presidency by campaigning as if he represented the opposition.


Its traditional rival, Copei, foundered when Caldera, a veteran copeyano ran and won in 1994 as the candidate of a potpourri in which the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), at the time the country's third-largest party, played a key role.

Leading copeyano defects. . . Last month, Copei's national convention decided that it would leave the door open to the possibility of fielding an outsider: Irene Saez, the mayor of the affluent Caracas municipality of Chacao, who has been regularly heading the polls as the most popular independent presidenciable.

This decision led to the defection of Henrique Sales, a moderate right-wing businessman who was one of the most prominent independents recruited by the party a decade ago, and who was twice elected governor of the state of Carabobo (now ruled by his son). Almost instantly, Salas shot up in the polls as another independent presidenciable.

. . . then a leading adeco. . . Last week, Claudio Fermin, disgusted with the manoeuvres of the AD leadership to block his nomination as the presidential candidate for 1998 (in favour of the party's uninspiring secretary-general, Luis Alfaro), announced that he was defecting to run as an independent.

His move was enthusiastically endorsed by Carlos Andres Perez (himself engaged in attempting a comeback): 'With his valiant decision,' he said, 'Fermin has given the movement for change a leader.' It was also applauded by copeyano defector Salas, for a different reason: 'it reaffirms that the political parties are being left out of the electoral agenda.'

. . . a division in the MAS. . . The situation is not much better in the co-ruling MAS. Some of its leaders seem willing to cast in their lot with AD's Alfaro -- who appears to be the favorite of President Caldera's inner circle -- while others insist that the party should run under its own colours this time round.

. . . and in Causa Radical. Finally, the left-wing Causa Radical, which in 1993 attracted enough votes to become the third-largest bloc in congress, has also split. One faction is toying with the idea of fielding former Major Hugo Chavez, leader of an abortive coup in 1992 and currently head of the Movimiento Bolivariano.

Muddled line-up. Among the political parties, AD still appears in the polls as commanding the support of about 20% of the electorate -- way behind the host of independents. The recent defections of Sales and Fermin have begun to challenge Saez's supremacy: each of them moved up, following their defection, to second or, depending on the pollster, even first place. Trailing them at a distance is Hugo Chavez, with 2% to 8%.

THE CURRENT LINE-UP IN CONGRESS

Last elections: 5 December 1993

	*2*Seats
Party	Senate	Chamber of deputies
Accion Democratica (AD)	16	55
Partido Social Cristiano (Copei)	14	53
Causa Radical (Causa-R)	9	40
Convergencia Nacional (CN)	6	26
Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)	5	24
Others	0	5
Total	50	203

Return to top