Latin American Economy & Business

Economy & Business - November 2024

Mexico’s controversial energy reforms are continuing full steam ahead after being approved by congress in October in a drive to strengthen state control over the sector and protect energy sovereignty.

Economy & Business - October 2024

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LEADER
- Milei’s asset regularisation drive in Argentina
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Christmas brought forward as economic winter looms
- PERU: Overhaul of congress well received by Moody’s
- ECUADOR/COLOMBIA: Colombia suspends energy exports to Ecuador
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: New central bank chief, same policy?
- CHILE : Picking up the scraps of Huachipato steel plant
- CHILE-URUGUAY: Obstacles to Google plans for data centres
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Turkish firm agrees US$1.6bn port investment
- PANAMA: Mulino’s plans for social security reform
- SURINAME: Pioneering carbon credit scheme faces challenges
- GUYANA: Blistering rate of growth in the first half
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Auto industry faces big growth, big risks
- MEXICO: The numbers don’t add up (yet)
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum announces gender equality package
- MEXICO: Gov’t grapples with arbitration cases
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Argentines have a deep-seated distrust in the banking sector, fuelled by a history of traumatic experiences with devaluations and account freezes – not least the December 2001 ‘corralito’, when the freezing of US dollar accounts following a persistent recession triggered violent protests, the downfall of the economy minister and president, and years of social unrest and instability.

Economy & Business - September 2024

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LEADER
- Cuba tightens restrictions on private sector amid ‘wartime economy’
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Waiting for a Chinese trade boom
- COLOMBIA: Industry slump mirrors broader economic woes
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- URUGUAY: Not-so polarising, but still a tight race for president
- PARAGUAY: Peña enjoys economic tailwinds, for now
- BRAZIL: Biofuels get a boost from Lula government
- ARGENTINA: Early signs of a dormant copper industry awakening
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- CENTRAL AMERICA: FDI inflows record year-on-year increase
- HONDURAS: Relations with China progressing amid scepticism from private sector
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Private sector worried over reforms
- MEXICO: New heads of state energy companies named
- MEXICO: Unicef highlights progress in reducing child poverty
- MEXICO: Mexico dominates Latin America’s AI sector
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

In late August Cuba’s official gazette published new decrees focussed on tightening controls on the non-state sector of the economy.

Economy & Business - August 2024

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LEADER
- Major gas discovery raises hopes in Bolivia
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Finances improve, recovery takes longer
- COLOMBIA: Scandal further clouds reform prospects
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- REGION: Make or break for Mercosur?
- ARGENTINA: Milei opens skies, as economic fix stalls
- BRAZIL: Privatisation of São Paulo water utility under fire
- BRAZIL: Upstart fintech takes on big name banks
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele announces efforts to address high prices
- PANAMA: Mulino plots economic course
- REGION: Will Beryl help region better prepare for hurricanes?
- BARBADOS: Third IMF review goes well
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum bets on continuity in her economic cabinet
- MEXICO: Gov’t insists no harm to come from US steel and aluminium tariffs
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum reiterates plans to overhaul water governance
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Bolivia’s struggling natural gas sector received a shot in the arm on 15 July when President Luis Arce announced the discovery of a major gas reserve in La Paz department.

Economy & Business - July 2024

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LEADER
- Mexico’s Sheinbaum gets off to a good start with private sector
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Two steps forward, two steps back
- PERU: Embattled Petroperú seeks structural changes
- BOLIVIA: Grappling with fuel shortages
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Challenges persist despite political win for Milei
- PARAGUAY-REGION: Big plans for a gas pipeline
- BRAZIL: Central bank in crossfire as economy lags
- CHILE: Codelco’s tricky copper-lithium balance
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Seeking to attract investment in the face of logistics crisis
- COSTA RICA: Poverty down but inequality persists
- REGION: Jet Air declares bankruptcy
- REGION: Could SIDS shake up Caribbean finances?
- ANTIGUA & BARBUDA: Debt is still the thing
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Banxico eyes further rate cuts amid dim growth prospects
- MEXICO: Government aiming to reach deal in Ganfeng Lithium dispute
- MEXICO: Booming avocado industry disrupted due to insecurity
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

As the scale of the victory of the leftist Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party in Mexico’s presidential elections on 2 June became clear, investors expressed acute concern: both the Mexican stock market’s IPC index and the peso fell to lows not seen since last year, with market jitters continuing into July.

Economy & Business - June 2024

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LEADER
- Lula’s priorities for Petrobras in Brazil
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: IMF comes to the rescue but demands fuel subsidy cuts
- ECUADOR/COLOMBIA: Drought reveals energy vulnerabilities
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- URUGUAY: Model economy in election year
- BRAZIL: Floods warn of climate change costs
- PARAGUAY: Brazil sweetens deal on Itaipú
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Ratings agency upgrade masks economic concerns
- REGION: El Niño highlights electricity supply issues
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Abinader re-election points to economic reforms
- BELIZE: IMF highlights need to entrench debt sustainability
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Blackouts to continue without more investment
- MEXICO: Prospects for economy in the long term remain gloomy
- MEXICO: Boosting cooperation with Guatemala
- MEXICO: Vulcan Materials dispute rumbles on
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Ever since its foundation over seven decades ago, Brazil’s state-run oil company Petróleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) has been a political football for the country’s leaders, each seeking to tap into the vast resources of Latin America’s largest energy company.

Economy & Business - May 2024

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LEADER
- Guatemala mine dispute symptomatic of uncertainty
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Economy stutters as political rift deepens
- VENEZUELA: Signs of change on the horizon?
- BOLIVIA: Running out of gas
- PERU: Political risk prompts credit downgrade
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lula’s public finance balancing act
- ARGENTINA: Faint light at the end of a long tunnel
- CHILE: A lifeline for domestic steel producers
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- COSTA RICA: Exporters complain about currency appreciation
- JAMAICA: Fiscal success creates new opportunities
- CUBA: Solar not shining brightly enough?
- BARBADOS: Movement on debt-for-climate
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Mexico’s pension reform: political genius or just unsustainable?
- MEXICO: New direct flight strengthens China’s ties with Mexico
- MEXICO: Labour productivity rising but remains low
- MEXICO: Concerns rise over child labour exploitation
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Guatemala’s environment ministry is moving to shut down a gold mine as part of a wider re-evaluation of the sector, the latest move signalling uncertainty for miners in the region.

Economy & Business - April 2024

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LEADER
- Political instability returns to the fore in Peru
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Renewed sanctions could undo progress
- COLOMBIA: Petro eyes constitution to kickstart reforms
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- REGION: Mercosur looks to Asia as EU deal stalls
- BRAZIL: Lula returns to statism as popularity slips
- ARGENTINA: Milei’s balancing act between austerity and popularity
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- REGION: New BCIE chief pledges to end loans to El Salvador and Nicaragua
- GUATEMALA: Arévalo charting economic course with US assistance
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Growth rate set to double this year
- THE BAHAMAS: Reeling from the climate change punches
- REGION: Tourism recovery under way
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Presidential candidates: big on spending, small on taxes
- MEXICO: What if Trump wins?
- MEXICO: Tourism on the up
- MEXICO: New US food labels cause concern among trade officials
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Peru’s President Dina Boluarte has carried out three cabinet reshuffles in as many months.

Economy & Business - March 2024

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LEADER
- Nearshoring shifts into higher gear in Mexico
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: High hopes and concern as China FTA ratified
- VENEZUELA/REGION: Economic benefits of the migrant crisis
- COLOMBIA: Tapping the San José’s US$20bn treasure
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Economic slowdown has upside potential
- BRAZIL: A plan to tap into global climate finance
- ARGENTINA: Milei’s economic wins elude the people
- CHILE: US eyes lithium reserves for energy transition
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- PANAMA: Continued drought brings further canal restrictions
- HONDURAS: Value of goods exports falls year-on-year
- CUBA: Economy minister replaced amid tension over austerity
- GUYANA: Budget problem: too much money
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Pemex in the transition
- MEXICO: Informal economy on the rise
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Strong economic growth, a series of big investment decisions, and the recently demonstrated ability to push China aside to become the largest supplier of imports into the US, all suggest Mexico is on a ‘nearshoring roll’.

Economy & Business - February 2024

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LEADER
- Milei’s very short honeymoon in Argentina
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Noboa reconsiders green pledges
- VENEZUELA: The stop-and-go of sanctions and reforms
- COLOMBIA: Bogotá unplugged with help of Beijing
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Partial victory for Boric on pensions bill
- BRAZIL: Lukewarm applause for Lula’s industry plan
- BRAZIL: Gol forced into Chapter 11 after ongoing struggle
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: Government steps in after key coffee buyer declares bankruptcy
- COSTA RICA: Medical devices drive strong increase in value of exports
- SURINAME: Debt restructuring nearly completed
- REGION: Mosquitoes recruited for anti-dengue sting
- REGION: Mixed reaction to Icon of the Seas
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Business sector worried over reform package
- MEXICO: Energy policies in election year focus
- MEXICO: FDI flows on the rise
- MEXICO: Tren Maya goes full steam ahead
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

It was too good to be true.

Economy & Business - January 2024

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LEADER
- El Salvador’s economic outlook improving as Bukele poised for re-election
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Early win for Noboa as congress approves crucial tax reform
- COLOMBIA: Petro fights back with high-risk health push
- VENEZUELA: Oil majors are back in town (for now)
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Steady slog toward investment grade
- ARGENTINA: Milei fix faces growing challenges
- CHILE: Light at the end of the tunnel?
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Regional court ruling will affect outlook for miners
- CUBA: Government rejects claims of economic “neoliberalism”
- JAMAICA: Debt burden slashed
- REGION: New focus on plastic waste
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
MEXICO & USMCA
- MEXICO: Growth set to help Morena win elections
- MEXICO: Chinese electric vehicle investments trigger US worries
- MEXICO: Poverty levels drop under López Obrador
- ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Nayib Bukele is expected to easily win a controversial second presidential term in El Salvador’s February election and the country’s economic prospects have improved slightly, although his policies could spell trouble in the future.