The political situation, in effect, makes it difficult for the Democratic Party administration of President Joe Biden to fully confront the fentanyl problem. At a formal level the administration is pursuing various initiatives, but Mexico’s less than whole-hearted commitment raises doubts as to their ability to succeed. Following the January 2023 North American Summit between the three regional leaders – Biden for the US, AMLO for Mexico, and Justin Trudeau for Canada - there was an agreement to “jointly confront the deadly scourge of synthetic drugs”. In July the specially created Trilateral Fentanyl Committee listed four main actions that would, it said, be taken by its members:
- intensifying and expanding prosecution of drug traffickers;
- targeting the supply of precursor chemicals and enlisting the support of private chemical and shipping companies to prevent diversion for illicit use;
- preventing drug trafficking across borders; and
- promoting public health services to reduce harm and demand, as well as providing education and treatment on substance abuse.
The three countries also pledged support for another Biden administration initiative, the newly created Global Coalition to Address Synthetic Drug Threats, which is supported by 80 countries but so far not by China (which is reported to have neither accepted nor rejected its invitation to join). The first priorities of the coalition, set up in July this year, are to prevent manufacturing and trafficking of illicit synthetic drugs, detect emerging new drug threats, and promote appropriate health responses. Caroline Rose, director of the Washington-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a think tank largely focused on the Captagon trade in the Middle East, said that the Global Coalition would help fill information gaps. “Improved multilateral dialogue on supply and demand, interdiction strategies, intelligence-sharing, and harm reduction pathways has been sorely needed” she told UAE based news portal thenational.com.
The key problem facing the Biden administration, however, is that it is dependent on Mexico’s goodwill to try and limit the flow of migrant and asylum seekers entering the US across the southern land border. This is such a politically sensitive subject that it appears to carry a higher priority than action to crack down on the cross-border fentanyl trade. In other words, the Biden administration is unwilling to confront AMLO over his inaction and disinformation on fentanyl for fear that the Mexican president will withdraw collaboration on the migration issue.
Jose Díaz Briseno, Washington correspondent for Mexico’s Reforma newspaper, says that both US Democrats and Republicans are deeply nervous about the security situation. In his view “the Biden administration has concerns about AMLO and particularly in the area of democracy and democratic backsliding”, but it has chosen to mute its criticism because it needs AMLO’s cooperation over migration. He sees migration as the key factor in the bilateral relationship. AMLO has helped both the Trump and Biden administrations by allowing Mexico to be used as a buffer state, requiring migrants requesting asylum in the US to remain in Mexico pending the result of their cases. Briseno adds: “The fact that AMLO is willing to turn Mexico into a buffer state to hold the migrants there and prevent them from reaching the US border makes him an invaluable asset.”
There is also an impression that both the US and Canada are now waiting for the end of the AMLO presidency, to see what deals can be struck with his successor, who is due take office late next year. Political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor says: “They know that López Obrador is a president who picks fights, who likes conflict, who’s constantly looking for people to get into the ring with him, and I think both Canada and the US have opted to be the adults in the room, not to respond to provocations, and simply wait for AMLO’s term to end.”
