Latin American drug cartels have shown themselves to be powerful, resilient, and flexible organisations which for decades have been major players supplying the US and international markets with illicit drugs such as cocaine and heroin. They have adapted as needed to changing patterns of drug consumption and law enforcement. The ‘war against drugs’ proclaimed in 1971 by US President Richard Nixon (1969-1974), which promised hard line measures to eradicate production, distribution, and consumption of illicit substances, is now over half a century old and has been deemed by many to have been an abject failure, reducing neither drug consumption nor cartel violence. Arguably, no new, comprehensive, and credible strategy has yet emerged to fill the vacuum. As a result, governments today lack a clear road map to contain the spread of addiction and cartel violence. On a country-by-country basis some policies focusing on public health and harm reduction have made modest progress, but there has also been regression.
The drugs business has meanwhile not stood still. The industry has recently been influenced by the massive surge in opioid consumption in the US, centred on the rise of synthetic drugs like fentanyl, which have contributed to a major spike in overdose deaths. Some analysts have speculated that this might in the end be good news for countries like Colombia, as it tries to diversify away from cocaine.
Almost exactly six years ago, in 2017, LatinNews published a special report titled Crime and security – trends and solutions. In an attempt to capture a snapshot of the drugs and crime business in Latin America as it looked at that point in time, the report started out by listing what it called the eight main ‘headlines’ affecting the region. As a framework for comparison six years later, the list is a useful way of providing some context.
The eight ‘headlines’ of 2017 were listed as follows:
- Despite fluctuations and some short-term falls, the homicide rate in Latin American drugs producing countries, measured as the number intentional killings per 100,000 inhabitants, remains exceptionally high by international standards
- Although suffering some setbacks and the capture of some of their leaders the criminal cartels, led by transnational organisations like the Sinaloa cartel (Mexico), Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG -Mexico), Cartel del Golfo (Gulf Cartel – Colombia), and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC- Brazil) remain strong and resilient.
- The economics of the wider crime business which includes drug trafficking, illegal logging, and illegal mining continues to be highly profitable. Demand is largely price inelastic.
- The rise of the heroin and opioids epidemic in the United States could be a game changer.
- Also likely to have a ripple effect is a surge in Colombian cocaine production.
- Latin American counties are experiencing a crisis in their prison systems, affected by overcrowding, underfunding, and gang control, thereby providing a flow of new recruits and ‘foot soldiers’ for the cartels.
- Despite serious corruption in the judiciary and public service, some prosecutors and judges have been prepared to tackle high-profile cases of drug-related corruption, money laundering, and bribery.
- Many of the region’s criminal justice systems remain unfit for purpose and require major reform and modernisation
Looking back after six years, the outstanding impression is how little has changed. Most of the headlines remain relevant. Largely because of fighting between rival drug cartels and law enforcement, Latin America remains the most murderous region of the world (excluding war zones). This in turn continues to have a major negative impact in terms of lost GDP and harm to the region’s citizens.
Admittedly, a new and potentially positive factor has emerged in Colombia where centre-left President Gustavo Petro, who took office in 2022, introduced the concept of ‘total peace’, an attempt to negotiate parallel peace deals with all the country’s rebel political and criminal armed groups, most of whom are also involved in drug trafficking. It will however take some years to assess the overall impact of the policy, which among other things seeks to divert rural families away from illicit crop cultivation. In any case, Petro will face big challenges in his attempt to break deeply embedded cycles of violence
The cartels, particularly in Mexico, continue to show an ability to recover from setbacks. Despite the arrest and deportation to the US of Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán in 2016-2017, and a degree of internal feuding, the cartel he once led has remained a major force. Similarly, the capture and deportation to the US of ‘Otoniel’ (real name Dairo Antonio Úsuga) in 2021-2023, the leader of Colombia’s Gulf Clan, did not seriously impair the group’s drug trafficking activities. The US-promoted strategy of trying to ‘decapitate’ criminal organisations has therefore had at best mixed results.
It is worth noting at least one apparent success story for an alternative, much more hardline, approach. In March 2022, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele introduced a state of emergency which allowed his security forces to conduct mass arrests of members of street gangs involved in drug and people trafficking and extortion. By August 2023 security forces had locked up an estimated 70,000 people, one of the world’s highest incarceration rates, equivalent to 2% of the adult population. Human rights organisations have criticised these arrests without trial and the associated inhumane prison conditions. But after peaking at 106 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015, El Salvador’s homicide rate dropped steadily to only 8 per 100,000 in 2022. In mid-2023 Bukele’s approval rating reached a remarkable 91% making him the most popular Latin American politician. Critics believe the policy of mass incarceration is not sustainable or compatible with the rule of law, but Bukele’s political popularity is almost certain to persuade other countries to adopt versions of his mano dura (hardline) approach.
The reality is that despite some exceptions, the headlines relating to the prison crisis, the ongoing struggle against corruption, and the poor state of criminal justice systems all remain relevant today. Six years on, what does seem to be a genuinely new element is the evolving situation caused by various overlapping factors: the US opioids crisis, the Chinese and Mexican role in the fentanyl supply chain, and some signs of weakness in the cocaine market. These are the issues which we will consider next.
