Weekly Report - 24 August 2023 (WR-23-34)

ECUADOR: Noboa delivers big electoral surprise

Ecuador’s presidential elections will go to a run-off, with Luisa González of the left-wing Revolución Ciudadana (RC) winning the most votes in the first round on 20 August. This much was expected. What was not foreseen in any electoral survey was her rival in the second round: Daniel Noboa of the centrist Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN). Noboa has a good chance of overturning González’s lead in the second round. González finished 10 percentage points ahead of Noboa but she will need to reach beyond the support base of former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) if she is to avoid suffering the same fate as Andrés Arauz (now her running mate), who won a very similar percentage of the vote in the first round in 2021, and had an even bigger lead, before losing the run-off to Guillermo Lasso.

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