* With just over two weeks to go before snap general elections on 20 August, Ecuador’s country risk, which measures the uncertainty associated with investing in a country, has risen to 2,018 points. Country risk has surged dramatically over the past six months, rising from 1,107 points at the start of February, shortly before corruption allegations were levelled against President Guillermo Lasso which led him to trigger the early elections. Polls indicate that voters are likely to reject Lasso’s pro-market policies, with a Cedatos poll published on 20 July giving the left-wing Luisa González, of Revolución Ciudadana (RC) – the party of former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) – a 13-percentage-point lead with 26.6% of voting intentions. González was followed by Fernando Villavicencio, of the centre-right Construye, on 13.2%. Villavicencio is closely trailed by Yaku Pérez, the third-placed candidate in the 2021 election, who is representing the left-wing Claro Que Se Puede coalition and scored 12.5% in the Cedatos poll. The election looks set to go to a second-round run-off, which will take place on 15 October if no candidate secures 40% of the vote with a 10 percentage point lead.
