The concern is that the second quarter is shaping up to be a poor one. In the first quarter, Mexican exports to the US were still rising at a rate of between 6% and 8% per month. The big fall in the second quarter has been in chemical exports, cars and vehicles and machinery.
Despite the fall in exports to the US, in the first five months of the year, total exports to the US were up by 3.3%, at US$56.2bn. The result has been flattered by the strength of oil prices. On the other hand, the weakness of the domestic economy has led to a fall in imports from the US: these were down by almost 6% year-on-year. This was the biggest drop so far this year. Overall imports from the US are down by 1.8% in the first five months, at US$38.6bn.
The result of what has been happening is that the trade surplus with the US was US$17.6bn for the first five months. Mexico is not the country with the biggest US trade surplus. That privilege belongs to China, which has a surplus of US$43.9bn; Japan has a surplus of US$26.8bn and Canada one of US$22bn.
The worry for Mexican policymakers is that, while Mexican exports to the US are growing at an annual rate of not more than 4%, China's are growing at a 20% rate. The trend has been clear since August last year, when China's exports to the US exceeded Mexico's by almost US$800m.
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