End of preview - This article contains approximately 2286 words.
Subscribers: Log in now to read the full article
Not a Subscriber?
Choose from one of the following options
Back
Special Report - Venezuela: will chavismo survive? (ISSN 17414474)
Hypothesis 2: Chavismo is alive and able to recover
The counter view to the death of chavismo is that the movement is facing undeniable difficulties, but retains underlying strength and vitality, more than the opposition and the international media is prepared to acknowledge. As a political movement it has a number of unique characteristics, which have combined to make it particularly resilient. It has delivered real social change in Venezuela and because of that can count on significant and enduring electoral support, even in the bad times. Admittedly, the chavista economic model and the social gains it achieved in the good years enter crisis mode when oil prices drop below a certain level (perhaps when they fall below around US$60 a barrel). But this is not the first time such fluctuations have happened: chavismo has lived through prior down-cycles in the oil market coupled with domestic political upheavals, and has come out the other side without collapsing. Finally and significantly, chavismo and madurismo are not the same thing: it is possible to envisage scenarios in which President Maduro’s term in office is brought to an early an inglorious end, but chavismo as a movement survives.
