One is considered a revolutionary town planner and successful manager of public funds during his term as mayor of Bogotá; the second is a reformed guerrilla who gave up arms to re-insert himself in Colombia’s democratic political life, becoming an anti-corruption crusader; and the third is the woman who said ‘enough is enough’ when President Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010) sought to reform the 1991 constitution to run for a second re-election, leaving the Partido de la U (PU) at a time when many considered her move political suicide. Interestingly, while the public perception of a candidate’s honesty was expected to be one of the top deciding factors for voters in Bogotá’s 30 October election –especially in light of the public works scandal that cost the previous mayor, Samuel Moreno, his job [WR-11-13] - all three candidates have untarnished reputations and this factor appears to have been completely removed from the equation.
According to the latest Ipsos-Napoléon Franco poll, former mayor Enrique Peñalosa (Partido Verde [PV] and PU) tops voting intentions with 23%, followed by Gustavo Petro (Movimiento Progresista) on 19% and Gina Parody (independent with ASI backing – see below) on 15%. However, taking into account that the poll has a 5% margin of error, on paper at least, the three candidates appear to be on a technical tie. Furthermore, the main concern for voters is now security –not the candidate’s honesty- followed by transport infrastructure (i.e. the public transport system and the general state of roads and highways).
This poll is very significant because it was the first one published after former Bogotá mayor and presidential candidate Antanas Mockus (Alianza Social Independiente, ASI) pulled out of the race and entered an alliance with Parody. The agreement was first announced on 28 September, but it wasn’t until the following day that Mockus and Parody said who would give up his/her aspirations in favor of the other. In the end, it was Mockus who said he wanted to give way to the new generation and that, as a professor, his goal is for his students to do better than him; if Parody were elected, Mockus would have fulfilled such a dream. This move could play very well with the young voters who comprised the so-called ‘green wave’ of 2010, when Mockus (on a PV ticket) faced-off (now president) Juan Manuel Santos (PU) in the second round of the presidential election. It also helps restore Mockus’s reputation, since his image was damaged in an internal power struggle within the PV with Peñalosa, after which Mockus quit the party in April last.
Parody is also calling for young people to move away from traditional political parties and form their own groupings or movements in which plurality of opinions is the condition sine qua non. Parody believes that in Colombia “there are no parties, but coalitions of votes” and her disaffection with the traditional political class is one of the main reasons that brought her and Mockus together. Moreover, Parody has a strong public image, in contrast to the high rejection rates for Petro and Peñalosa. It may be to her advantage that she has had a relatively short political career. The latest poll arguably showed this since Parody was the candidate whose support grew most (from 9% in September to 15%), while Peñalosa only managed to increase by one percentage point and Petro declined by four.
However, Parody’s climb was not the result of the simple addition of Mockus’s support base to hers. In fact, half of the 16% of voters who had previously backed Mockus now declare themselves undecided and the other half has found an alternative choice elsewhere. The Mockus-Parody alliance grew by attracting 9% of voters who previously supported other candidates and maintaining Parody’s 7% original backing. Technically, Parody has an advantage in that Mockus could help her re-attract that 8% of new undecided voters which could give her a decent shot at becoming the capital’s first elected female mayor.
- From victims to victimisers
A recent study of the character of female victimisers conducted by Colombia’s directorate of criminal investigations and Interpol (Dijin) found that all 997 women victimisers –defined as those who committed atrocities such as mass murders or the dismemberment of their victims’ bodies - had been victims of violence themselves. Furthermore it identified three typical characteristics or motivations that make women break the law: 1) revenge against their abusers and the society that turned a blind eye to their suffering; 2) being a member of an illegal armed group; and 3) knowledge of how to use a weapon from a young age, which is then used to gain power within illegal groups as an assassin in exchange for drugs or cash.
