Andean Group - July 2011 (ISSN 1741-4466)

Elías Ejijurí, the president of the national statistics institute, said on 12 June that he expected real annual GDP growth to be running above 5% by 2011's year-end, after a better-than-expected first quarter result of 4.5% year-on-year, driven by the private sector (which still accounts for 70% of the economy). The 2011 budget is based on 2% real annual growth.  The government maintains that the current electricity supply problems are due to strong demand, as economic activity rebounds, in contrast to the drought-induced crisis of 2010. Regardless of the cause, the current wave of blackouts must have an impact on growth, so Ejijurí's forecast may be optimistic.

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