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Weekly Report - 19 August 2003

Tracking trends

BRAZIL | Domestic market still shrinking. In June, for the seventh month running, retail sales were lower than a year earlier, taking the total for the first half of the year down 5.57% year-on-year -- this was the worst such slump since the national statistics institute, Ibge, began to record these figures in January 2001. Ibge attributes these results to the increase in unemployment, the fall in workers' purchasing power and the high rates of interest on consumer credit. Worst hit by the downturn were food stores; the worst hit areas, São Paulo and Rio. 

BRAZIL | Agroindustry growth sharply down. Agroindustrial production in the first half of this year grew by only 1.5%, after having clocked 8.9% growth in January-June 2002 and 8.4% in the whole of last year. This said, agroindustry far outshone the average growth for industry as a whole, which was only 0.1% in the first half. The most dynamic lines were soya oil (with exports up 108%) and frozen pork (up 69%). 

ARGENTINA | Savings up, investment not as much. Argentines increased their savings by 45% last year, to US$5.6bn, but only devoted 62.5% of that to investment: the rest went to paying off debts or what the authorities are euphemistically describing as `safekeeping outside the financial system'. Argentina's investment-to-GDP ratio last year was 12%, down from 14.2% in 2001. The savings-to-GDP ratio was 19.6%, up from 14% the previous year. 

PARAGUAY | Partial debt restructuring. Recently installed President Nicanor Duarte says that one of his top priorities will be the renegotiation of `some maturities' of Paraguay's public debt. Falling due in the remainder of this year is US$62.4m of external debt and US$89.4m of domestic debt. The scope for restructuring is confined to that portion of the debt owed to some banks and governments.

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