LatinNews Daily - 31 October 2025

On 30 October Keiko Fujimori, the de-facto leader of the Peruvian right, announced her candidacy in the April 2026 presidential election.

Analysis:

This is Fujimori’s fourth run at the presidency, after she reached the run-off in 2011, 2016, and 2021. On the latter two occasions she lost by less than 0.3 percentage points. She will be hoping that widespread alarm over rising crime, particularly extortion, will provide her with the winning formula this time around. Fujimori yesterday vowed to crush criminal groups, although this will do little to distinguish her in a campaign that is set to be dominated by tough-on-crime candidates. Her speech yesterday suggested that she will lean into the legacy of her late father, authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), who is lauded on the right for his ruthless counterinsurgency campaign against the Sendero Luminoso (SL) guerrilla movement but deplored on the left for the human rights abuses that characterised his presidency.

• Fujimori announced her candidacy at a rally in Trujillo, the capital of the north-western region of La Libertad – one of the regions most impacted by the growth of organised crime. She said that if elected she would govern in the style of her father, “with an iron fist”, and that “urban terrorism is not confronted with speeches, pretty words, or from offices – this damn violence needs to be fought in the streets, by bringing out the armed forces and using the intelligence services”. She said that “Fujimorismo will bring the authority that all Peruvians need”.
• Fujimori’s announcement comes after she was dealt a major reprieve in a money laundering case that has dogged her since 2018 and concerns allegedly illegal donations to her 2011 and 2016 campaigns from the Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht. On 21 October the constitutional court (TC) dismissed the investigation, claiming that it had been flawed. This came after a judge threw out her trial in January this year and said that prosecutors should restart their investigation.
• Fujimori’s candidacy still needs to win the approval of her right-wing Fuerza Popular (FP) if her name is to appear on the ballot, although this is likely to be a formality.
• Meanwhile, new President José Jerí is also planning steps to curtail the power of organised crime. This is a political imperative for Jerí, who has no popular mandate and whose government is at the mercy of a hardline congress which impeached his predecessor, Dina Boluarte (2022-2025), for failing to get a grip on crime. Yesterday, the transport and communications ministry announced that it is evaluating whether mobile phone SIM cards could be linked with biometric data to clamp down on extortion.
• Security was also the main focus of a telephone call yesterday between Jerí and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to Tommy Pigott, deputy spokesperson at the US State Department, Rubio “stressed the importance of strengthening security cooperation and supporting Peru’s efforts to combat crime in our hemisphere”. He added that “both leaders agreed to continue close cooperation on shared priorities, including combating narco-trafficking and strengthening regional stability”.

Looking Ahead: Other candidates who have announced their presidential campaigns include far-right former mayor of Lima Rafael López Aliaga (2023-2025), who polls have named as the early frontrunner, and Mario Vizcarra, the brother of former president Martín Vizcarra (2018-2020) who is Mario’s running mate. Martín Vizcarra is barred from holding public office as he awaits trial for alleged corruption, although he has appealed to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) to overturn this ban.

*Colombia’s state oil company Ecopetrol and Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras have announced a joint venture to sell gas from the Sirius gas field located off Colombia’s Caribbean coast. Ecopetrol, which operates the Sirius site jointly with Petrobras and is the dominant partner with a 55.56% stake, announced in October 2024 that a major gas deposit had been discovered at Sirius. Ecopetrol said at the time that this was its largest discovery since the 1990s, with the Sirius field containing an estimated 6tn cubic feet of natural gas. Under the sales agreement announced yesterday, the two companies will market up to 249m cubic feet of gas per day for a period of up to six years. Production is expected to begin in 2030.

On 30 October Brazil’s congress passed legislation that grants consumers the right to choose their power supplier, provides tax breaks and compensations for renewable energy, and increases the amount of royalties oil companies must pay.

Analysis:

Approval of the bill by both chambers of congress yesterday prevented the presidential decree (‘medida provisória’, MP), which is the basis for the legislation and was issued on 11 July, from expiring at the end of next week. The energy bill helps cap the price of electricity and ensure its supply in the future. It also heightens competition by granting consumers more choice. That could make power cheaper and improve the quality of service. In addition, it forces the power grid operator (ONS) to find innovative ways to deal with inevitable fluctuations of renewable energy.

• Within 24 months, commercial and industrial customers will be able to choose from which power company to buy electricity. Residential consumers will be able to do so in 36 months. In the meantime, by-laws will be drafted and consumer awareness campaigns launched. The bill establishes a supplier of last resort as a backup to ensure consumers are covered in case of emergencies, contractual disputes or other problems. Currently only large-scale users can freely choose their supplier.
• Subsidies for social welfare or other public interest programmes granted through the Conta de Desenvolvimento Energético (CDE), a fund financed through surcharges on power rates, will be capped from 2027. That helps limit additional costs and thereby the price of electricity in the long run.
• Generators of renewables will be compensated when their output is capped due to an ‘oversupply’ in the market. A surcharge was removed on renewable energies designed to limit their rapid expansion, which has made it difficult for the ONS to manage sudden spikes or declines in supply.
• Investments in storage of renewable energy will receive full exemptions on the IPI industrial tax and the PIS/Cofins social contributions tax in 2026.
• The bill changes the calculation of royalties that companies such as state oil firm Petrobras pay the local, state, or federal government. That is likely to increase tax revenues but reduce the ability to pay dividends or reinvest profits. Shares of Petrobras fell on the news.

Looking Ahead: Opposition legislators voiced their hope that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could use a line-item veto to reverse the royalty measure affecting Petrobras. He is expected to sign the bill into law in the coming days.

*Brazil’s labour ministry has released the latest figures from its national employment registry (Novo Caged), showing net formal job creation of 213,002 in September. This was the result of 2.29m new hires and 2.08m dismissals. This was down by 14.04% on the net 247,818 jobs that were created in September 2024, but up by 44.5% from the net 147,358 jobs that were created the previous month. Over the first nine months of 2025, a net total of 1.72m jobs were created, up 3.6% on the same period last year.

On 30 October Guatemala’s President Bernardo Arévalo warned that “corrupt actors” led by the disgraced attorney general, María Consuelo Porras, were intent on destabilising his government.

Analysis:

President Arévalo’s comments come the day after Porras appealed to the supreme court (CSJ) to lift his presidential immunity for “dereliction of duty” in relation to the escape of 20 mara gang members from the Fraijanes II maximum security prison earlier this month. This followed what Arévalo described as “an attempted coup” by Judge Fredy Orellana, who sought unsuccessfully to persuade the supreme electoral tribunal (TSE) to annul the 2023 elections, removing Arévalo from power.

• Speaking during a press conference, Arévalo said that “the attempts to attack democracy are continuous”, adding that “they are desperate because time is running out for them…” This was an allusion to the fact that Porras’ term ends in May 2026 when Arévalo will be able to choose her replacement and she could find herself on trial for her key role in the ‘pacto de corruptos’ corruption network for which both she and Orellana have been blacklisted by the US and other countries.
• Arévalo said there was “a network of shadowy interests seeking to obstruct the actions of this government” driven by those “who do not want corruption to end”. But he praised the constitutional court (CC) for issuing a resolution on 29 October annulling Orellana’s order to the TSE, and warning the judge that further attempts in the same vein would constitute “breach of duty”. The CSJ is now looking into the case to determine whether Orellana could be dismissed.
• Meanwhile, the permanent council of the Organization of American States (OAS) held an extraordinary session to discuss the “serious threats to constitutional and democratic order in Guatemala” yesterday. Guatemala’s foreign minister, Carlos Ramiro Martínez, denounced the “lawfare” being waged against the government by “the attorney general’s office and co-opted judges”, with a succession of “arbitrary and illegitimate actions in recent days”.

Looking Ahead: The OAS will vote on a resolution on 5 November to reaffirm the commitment of member states to the preservation of the constitutional and democratic order in Guatemala. The secretary general, Albert Ramdin, said that any attempt to undermine Arévalo’s mandate would not only affect Guatemala’s stability but also the democratic values collectively upheld in the hemisphere.

*US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has issued a statement in response to the devastating passage of Hurricane Melissa through eastern Cuba, saying that his department is issuing “a Declaration of Humanitarian Need for Cuba and is prepared to provide immediate humanitarian assistance directly and via local partners who can most effectively deliver it to those in need”. Rubio made clear that the government “stands with the brave Cuban people who continue to struggle to meet basic needs”, while stressing that US law includes “exemptions and authorizations relating to private donations of food, medicine, and other humanitarian goods to Cuba, as well as disaster response”. Rubio’s statement comes a day after he had put out a message on social media saying that Washington was “in close contact with the governments of Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic and The Bahamas as they confront the devastating impacts of Hurricane Melissa”, adding that “rescue and response teams [are] heading to affected areas along with critical lifesaving supplies”, pointedly leaving out Cuba.

On 30 October the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) sanctioned a human smuggling organisation based in Cancún, in Mexico’s Quintana Roo state.

Analysis:

The US administration of President Donald Trump has increasingly leveraged sanctions to target Mexican criminal organisations, as well as financial institutions and allegedly corrupt politicians. The latest sanctions shift the focus from drug trafficking to human smuggling, as the Trump administration looks to reduce the number of migrants crossing illegally into the US. While a combination of hardline US anti-migration policies and cooperation from Mexican security forces led to the smallest number of migrant apprehensions at the US-Mexico border in fiscal year (FY) 2025, apprehensions have been creeping up in recent months following a low in July. Trump will likely seek to raise pressure on Mexico’s government led by President Claudia Sheinbaum to reverse this rise.

• Ofac sanctioned the Bhardwaj human smuggling organisation as well as its leader Vikrant Bhardwaj, three associates including his wife, and 16 companies that it said had “facilitated and profited” from the criminal activities.
• According to Ofac, the group “has smuggled thousands of illegal aliens from Europe, the Middle East, South America, and Asia” into the US using its network of yachts, marinas, hostels, and hotels to transport and house the migrants. It said the group worked with the Hernández Salas transnational criminal organisation (TCO), an alleged human smuggling organisation based in Mexicali, Baja California state, which Ofac sanctioned in June 2023.
• Along with Bhardwaj, Ofac also sanctioned José Germán Valadez Flores, “a businessman and drug trafficker” who it said bribes “corrupt Mexican officials” to enable the smuggling of migrants into Cancún, and Jorge Alejandro Mendoza Villegas, a former police officer in Quintana Roo, who “has access to the Cancún International Airport to help coordinate the arrival and departure of undocumented migrants”.
• On 7 October the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that FY 2025 finished with the lowest US border patrol apprehensions since 1970 with 237,565. DHS said this was 87% below the average of the last four fiscal years which was 1.86m.

Looking Ahead: Despite the FY 2025 figures, monthly figures show an upwards trend, with 8,386 apprehensions recorded in September, up from 6,317 in August, and 4,592 in July

*Mexico’s national statistics institute has released preliminary figures on the country’s economic activity in the third quarter of 2025, estimating contractions of 0.3% in both yearly and quarterly terms. This follows two consecutive quarters of GDP growth, following quarterly growth of 0.6% in Q2 and of 0.3% in Q1 2025, according to the latest figures. In Q3 2025, activities in the primary sector (agriculture) were up 3.2% in quarterly terms and those in the tertiary sector (services) were up 0.1%, while those in the secondary sector (manufacturing) dropped by 1.5%. In yearly terms, primary activities were up 3.0% and tertiary activities were up 0.9% while secondary activities fell by 2.9%.

On 30 October Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña issued a decree designating Brazilian criminal groups Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) as international terrorist organisations.

Analysis:

The designation comes amid growing concerns that following the major clash between Brazilian security forces and members of CV in Rio de Janeiro, the CV and PCC could seek refuge in Paraguay and ramp up criminal operations there as they prepare to retaliate. The move will allow the Peña administration to mobilise more resources against the groups and to coordinate operations against them with security forces from Brazil and Argentina. The hope is this will help to prevent a surge in criminal violence in Paraguay.

• The Rio de Janeiro clashes were the deadliest in years, with dozens of suspected CV members killed. With Brazilian law enforcement insisting that it will continue to go after the CV and the PCC, Paraguayan officials warned that CV and PCC members could seek to retreat to Paraguay and prepare for retaliatory action from there. This prompted Paraguay’s national defence security council (Codena) to announce on 29 October the adoption of extraordinary surveillance measures along Paraguay’s border with Brazil to stop the mass entry of criminal elements.
• Codena - chaired by the president and comprising the interior, defence, and foreign ministers, as well as the heads of the armed forces and the national police - also ordered Paraguay’s security forces to establish permanent communication channels with their counterparts in Brazil and Argentina to monitor the situation and ensure a joint and swift response to any incidents in the triple border area.
• However, yesterday a group of 15-20 heavily armed and unidentified criminals briefly took control of a town in the north-eastern border department of Canindeyú and stole US$910,000 after blowing up a bank vault. In response, Codena announced the imminent designation of the CV and PCC as terrorist groups.

Looking Ahead: Codena permanent secretary, Rear Admiral Cíbar Benítez, said the decision to designate the groups was also expedited by the recognition that the increased cash flows traditionally observed in the final months of the year increase the likelihood of major criminal action in the next three months.

*Chile’s national statistics institute (INE) has released the latest figures for its industrial production index (IPI), which show a 1.5% annual increase in September but a 0.2% drop in monthly terms. This compares to an annual drop of 1.9% in August, when the IPI increased by 0.1% in monthly terms. The INE’s report also showed a 1.8% year-on-year drop in the mining production index (IPMin), which was up by 3.1% in monthly terms. The manufacturing production index (IPMan) was up by 5.0% year-on-year and dropped by 3.2% in monthly terms. Meanwhile, the electricity, gas, and water production index (Ipega) increased by 1.0% in yearly terms and 0.2% as compared to the previous month.