With the Trump administration also removing an estimated 350,000 Venezuelans from Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in the US [WR-25-04], the prospect of mass deportation has become a little closer to reality. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem formally announced the termination of the TPS arrangement for Venezuelans on 1 February, with effect from 7 April.
The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that the designation of the TPS, on 3 October 2023, was “based on the determination that there were extraordinary and temporary conditions in that country that prevented the safe return of Venezuelan nationals”.
Nothing has changed in Venezuela to render that determination inapplicable; if anything, the Maduro government has demonstrated unequivocally, since the presidential elections in July 2024, that it has no qualms about subverting democracy, intends to retain power at all costs, and will repress all those who oppose it. But the DHS made it clear that domestic political considerations in the US are of paramount importance: “In particular, the Secretary has determined it is contrary to the national interest to permit the covered Venezuelan nationals to remain temporarily in the United States.”
Maduro described the meeting with Grenfell as “positive”, adding that further issues would be addressed in time. At first glance, Trump got much more out of the meeting than Maduro did. But, crucially, elements in the status quo in bilateral relations which are comparably favourable to Venezuela remain in place. The US, for instance, is not ending the oil production sanctions waiver to the US energy giant Chevron, which now accounts for around a quarter of total oil production in the country. This is providing a financial lifeline to the Maduro regime.
The freeze on funding for the US Agency for International Development (USAID) funding is also a quiet win for Maduro, who has long complained that the money supports NGOs critical of his government. Paradoxically, US trade tariff policy and diplomacy has now become more generous to Venezuela, an ideological enemy, than to longstanding allies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Panama.
The Venezuelan opposition expressed disappointment over the outcome of Grenfell’s trip, for failing to put any pressure on Maduro. That said, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told US news channel Fox News that Grenfell’s negotiating trip did not mean that the US was preparing to recognise Maduro. He added that “Maduro knows that the United States has many options to inflict damage on his regime”. However, the prospect of negotiations to secure free and fair elections in Venezuela - the opposition’s top priority - remains distant.
Opposition disappointment
Edmundo González, widely seen as the rightful winner of last year’s presidential elections in Venezuela, had earlier asked President Trump not to open negotiations on migration, because this would only strengthen President Maduro – a request that was ignored.
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