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Weekly Report - 06 February 2025 (WR-25-05)

Rubio visit marks regional reset

Mulino, who described the meeting with Rubio as “respectful and cordial” and said it should help “to increase as much as possible US investments in Panama”, insisted that Panama’s sovereignty over the Canal is not in question. However, the issue has allowed Washington to exert powerful leverage and may for that reason be kept on the agenda. Trump, pointedly, ratcheted up tensions directly after Rubio had appeared to lessen them, by saying that if his demands were not met “something very powerful is going to happen”.

El Salvador

In El Salvador the US secretary of state was offered cooperation on crime and migration by President Nayib Bukele, which Rubio described as “the most unprecedented, extraordinary migratory agreement anywhere in the world”. This included the offer of a new ‘safe third country’ pact, which, for a fee, would allow Washington to deport migrants of various nationalities to El Salvador, including members of the Tren de Aragua cartel (which originated in Venezuela but is now multinational in composition).

Bukele even offered an “outsourcing” deal to hold US citizens currently serving jail sentences in their own country, at a fee per prisoner which “would be relatively low for the US but significant for us, making our entire prison system viable”. US officials are excited by what El Salvador, an ideological ally, is offering on the migration front, but some of these arrangements are still likely to be challenged by US courts (current US law, for example, forbids the deportation of US citizens).

Costa Rica

In Costa Rica, a relatively more prosperous country where drug-related violence is at a lower level, Rubio focused his efforts on rolling back Chinese influence. Costa Rica has a free trade agreement with China and was the first country in the sub-region to switch allegiance to China from Taiwan in 2007. But Rubio praised President Rodrigo Chaves for a 2023 law which effectively blocks Chinese companies like Huawei from bidding to supply 5G telecoms technology in public procurement auctions. The law excludes companies from countries that have not signed the Budapest Convention on cyber-crime.

In terms of crime and migration, Chaves said his government was taking up Rubio’s offer of assistance from US anti-crime agencies, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). He also sought to reassure Chaves (as he did his other hosts throughout his tour of the sub-region) that the shutdown of USAID was a temporary freeze to conduct a review and that there would be ongoing US support for “common sense” programmes in Costa Rica, such as cyber-security and the prevention of drug trafficking.

  • Panama protests

Secretary of State Rubio’s visit triggered a protest demonstration in Panama City led by a coalition of nationalist groups, including Suntracs, the powerful construction workers’ union. The protesters burnt images of President Trump and Rubio and planted Panamanian flags in public spaces. Police prevented the demonstrators from reaching the presidential palace and there were no major incidents.

Guatemala

Security and migration were also said to be the key issues in talks between Rubio and centre-left Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo. During his stay Rubio witnessed the arrival of a deportation flight bringing undocumented Guatemalans back from the US. Arévalo has accepted a 40% increase in the number of deportation flights coming to his country from the US from last year to around 86,000 in 2025. According to Mauricio Claver-Carone, Trump’s special envoy to Latin America, Guatemala has offered “extraordinary cooperation” on the migration issue. Arévalo added that his government sees the return of its citizens from the US as an economic development opportunity. The presidential press secretary said the returnees had important skills and were likely bilingual; there would be opportunities for them in sectors like tourism and the food industry.

Rubio and Arévalo also agreed to set up a joint police and army task force for control and protection of Guatemala’s eastern borders (with Belize, Honduras, and El Salvador). The aim is to fight “all forms of transnational crime” Arévalo said.

Dominican Republic

Talks with President Luis Abinader in the Domini

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