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LatinNews Daily - 12 December 2024

In brief: Brazil’s central bank accelerates rate hike cycle

*The monetary policy committee (Copom) of Brazil’s central bank (BCB) has raised the country’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) by 100 basis points, from 11.25% to 12.25%. This marks an acceleration from the increase of 50 basis points made during the previous Copom meeting in November. Private sector analysts consulted by the BCB did not forecast such a steep rise; according to the BCB’s weekly Focus bulletin, which contains the economic projections of these market experts, the Selic was forecast to close this year at 12.0% with annual inflation expected to reach 4.84% by the end of 2024. This would breach the upper limit of the BCB’s annual inflation target range, which is 3.0% +/-1.5. In a statement, the Copom made more hawkish signals, raising concern over a “de-anchoring of inflation expectations” and suggesting that “adjustments of the same magnitude” are expected to be made in the next two Copom meetings, which are scheduled for 28-29 January and 18-19 March. The latest rate hike was agreed unanimously by the nine Copom members, including Gabriel Galípolo, who will take over from Roberto Campos Neto in January as the next BCB president.

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