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Argentina
Scenarios 3 The messy middle way
A third possibility is that Milei’s first 100 days point neither to a social explosion nor to a triumph of free market economics, but to a long, extended deadlock, when nothing much changes. Put bluntly the hard opposition led by the Peronists will refuse to back reforms while Milei’s combative stance will alienate the pro-dialogue opposition, creating a prolonged stalemate. The debate on the DNU and the omnibus law will simply drag on for much, if not all, of this year. Although it will still be possible to score some macroeconomic wins – such as achieving lower inflation and better fiscal management – Milei’s government could end up hamstrung by congressional opposition. Most of the government’s priorities require legislation of some kind. Without minimal congressional agreement and understanding Milei may find roadblocks at every turn.
- Javier Milei: profile of an outsider
- What’s the mandate? The 2023 elections
- Opinion polls harvest data on popular frustration
- A thousand reforms, but doubts over implementation
- Omnibus reform law placed on hold
- Provinces express concern over May Pact
- The other story – pleasing the markets
- Milei on the defensive over top salaries
- The crime issue
- Mixed picture from the pollsters
- Foreign policy: Milei’s shift to the right
- Compare and contrast: Milei and Noboa
- How deep is the pain?
- What do Milei’s first 100 days tell us?
- Scenario 1 A social explosion?
- Scenarios 2 Milei triumphant?
- Scenarios 3 The messy middle way