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Argentina
Scenarios 2 Milei triumphant?
A radically different scenario, in which Mile emerges triumphant, can also not be ruled out at this stage. What would success for Milei look like? A key initial component would be an initial stabilisation of the economy. The first converts to ‘Mileiconomics’ would be the financial markets, investors, and the business community. To some extent short term indicators are already generating localised optimism – but within a fairly narrow demographic segment. As we have seen the monthly inflation rate is beginning to come down and may hit single figures during the second quarter of 2024 or even earlier. The fiscal deficit has been eliminated, foreign currency reserves are growing, and the gap between the official and free market exchange rates has narrowed, showing increased confidence.
- Javier Milei: profile of an outsider
- What’s the mandate? The 2023 elections
- Opinion polls harvest data on popular frustration
- A thousand reforms, but doubts over implementation
- Omnibus reform law placed on hold
- Provinces express concern over May Pact
- The other story – pleasing the markets
- Milei on the defensive over top salaries
- The crime issue
- Mixed picture from the pollsters
- Foreign policy: Milei’s shift to the right
- Compare and contrast: Milei and Noboa
- How deep is the pain?
- What do Milei’s first 100 days tell us?
- Scenario 1 A social explosion?
- Scenarios 2 Milei triumphant?
- Scenarios 3 The messy middle way