Election Watch


There will be six presidential elections in Latin America in 2024, of which one, that in Venezuela, cannot be considered to be a free contest. Of the five remaining elections, two will almost certainly be won by the incumbents (Luis Abinader in the Dominican Republic and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador) and one has every chance of being won by the continuity candidate (Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico). Given that in Uruguay President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou would probably win if he were able to stand for re-election, the only country where the usual Latin American anti-incumbency factor is prevalent is Panama. This is remarkable. Incumbents have a terrible record in Latin America, winning just five of the 32 free and fair presidential elections since 2015 (that is excluding those in Venezuela and Nicaragua).

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