Development: Ramón Mestre, aligned with Cambiemos, the national opposition coalition, was comfortably re-elected mayor of the Argentine city of Córdoba in polls held on 13 September.
Significance: Located in the centre of the country, Córdoba is Argentina’s second-largest city, and could play an important role in the national elections due next month. Mestre’s victory was good news for Mauricio Macri, the Cambiemos presidential candidate, and a disappointing result for Daniel Scioli, the presidential candidate for the ruling Frente Para la Victoria (FPV) faction of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists). But the battle between the two main presidential contenders remains open.
- At one level nothing had changed. According to opinion polls, at national level Scioli remains front-runner in the presidential race, with Macri in second place. In the sequence of local elections running up to the 25 October national polls, the positions of the two contenders has fluctuated according to local conditions. The FPV has been weak in Córdoba for years, so its poor showing there was no surprise – its candidate for mayor was pushed down into a humiliating seventh place with 2.4% of the vote. This compared with the 32.3% secured by the victorious Mestre. In the provincial elections due on 20 September in Chaco, the FPV is expected to do much better, reflecting its strength in the north of the country.
- But Córdoba was interesting because of the search for additional alliances in a possible second-round ballot in the presidential race. It is likely that Scioli will fail to win an outright victory on 25 October, and will therefore face a run-off ballot against Macri in November. With that in mind the FPV made overtures to two other political groupings. It sought an approximation with the dissident Peronists, and in particular with followers of outgoing Córdoba province governor, José Manuel de la Sota, who lost the battle for presidential nomination in the primaries to Sergio Massa. But it was unable to drive a wedge between De La Sota and Massa. The candidate representing their coalition came third in the mayoral vote with 17.3%.
- Secondly, the FPV also flirted with former TV journalist and anti-corruption campaigner, Tomás Méndez, who came second with 23.2% of the vote. But that too did not prosper. In the final battle for the presidency, success may well go to whoever can pick up most votes from smaller groupings like these.
Looking Ahead: Macri took advantage of the Córdoba victory to announce what he said will be the three top policy priorities of his presidential campaign: achieving “zero poverty”, cracking down on drug trafficking, and seeking “to unite all Argentines”. These themes – likely to dominate his coalition’s propaganda blitz over the next 40 days – appear tailored to appeal to floating voters who many strategists say will be the ultimate arbiters of the national elections.
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