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Argentina
How deep is the pain?
A key question looking forward is to assess the level of hardship imposed on the population at large, as a result of high inflation and a growing recession. The Milei government has from the start made clear that economic conditions are likely to get worse before they get better. That is implicit in his programme of shock measures which focus on further devaluing the peso to restore export competitiveness, cutting the fiscal deficit, and reducing the size of the state. A recession is inevitable but there is less certainty over how deep it will be, and over how long it will last. Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America Programme at the US based Wilson Centre, emphasizes how consequential the outcome may be. “It is a fairly traditional approach to stabilisation” he says, but he warns “that doesn’t mean it is not dramatic and high stakes…it is an act of either political courage or political suicide”.
- Javier Milei: profile of an outsider
- What’s the mandate? The 2023 elections
- Opinion polls harvest data on popular frustration
- A thousand reforms, but doubts over implementation
- Omnibus reform law placed on hold
- Provinces express concern over May Pact
- The other story – pleasing the markets
- Milei on the defensive over top salaries
- The crime issue
- Mixed picture from the pollsters
- Foreign policy: Milei’s shift to the right
- Compare and contrast: Milei and Noboa
- How deep is the pain?
- What do Milei’s first 100 days tell us?
- Scenario 1 A social explosion?
- Scenarios 2 Milei triumphant?
- Scenarios 3 The messy middle way