Development: Campaigning for Colombia’s congressional elections concluded on 4 March, one week before the contest takes place.
Significance: The close of the congressional campaign was marked by violence and it is concerning because the country will only become more polarised in the run-up to presidential elections on 27 May.
- The attorney general’s office and national police are investigating a series of outbreaks of violence in the closing days of the campaign. Gustavo Petro, the early frontrunner in the presidential race, claims he survived an assassination attempt upon him while he was campaigning in the north-eastern city of Cúcuta, on the border with Venezuela, on 2 March. Petro said the vehicle in which he was travelling sustained impacts from some form of projectile.
- The following day, an improvised explosive device was detonated at a rally of legislative candidates of the Partido Conservador (PC) in the municipality of Segovia in the north-western department of Antioquia. Nine people were wounded.
- Opinion polls suggest that Petro’s party, Movimiento Progresistas, will not win many seats in the congressional elections on 11 March. By contrast, Iván Duque, who is vying with Petro for early leadership of the presidential polls, should be in a stronger position. Centro Democrático (CD), the right-wing party formed by former president Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010) for which Duque hopes to stand, is set to be one of the largest parties in congress, according to the latest opinion surveys.
- Duque is expected to win a public consultation process, to be held on the same day as the congressional elections, against Marta Lucía Ramírez, who hails from the PC, and a former prosecutor general, Alejandro Ordóñez, to secure the CD presidential candidacy.
- Germán Vargas Lleras, who served as vice-president for much of President Juan Manuel Santos’s second term (2014-2017), is hoping that a good showing by his Cambio Radical (CR) party in the congressional elections will act as a springboard for him to move into contention in the presidential contest. Vargas Lleras is trailing well behind Petro and Duque at present.
Looking Ahead: The congressional elections are seen as a barometer for the presidential election. The more seats a party obtains in the chamber of deputies and the senate, the more credible its presidential candidate will appear.
