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Weekly Report - 26 January 2017 (WR-17-03)

ECUADOR: Moreno retains lead as rivals vie for second

With just over three weeks to go until Ecuador stages general elections, Lenín Moreno, the presidential candidate for the ruling Alianza País (AP), retains a significant, but very far from decisive, lead in all of the main opinion polls. Moreno enjoys an advantage of just over 10 percentage points over his nearest rival. If Moreno preserved this 10-point lead, his margin of victory would be sufficient to win in the first round on 19 February but only if he were to surpass the 40% threshold. Failing that he would have to win 50% of the vote, which looks beyond him, or contest a second round on 2 April, which could be much more problematic.

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