LatinNews Daily - 12 February 2025

*Ecuador’s country risk has jumped by over 250 points in the aftermath of the 9 February first round of the presidential election, reflecting increased investor uncertainty due to the unexpectedly tight race between President Daniel Noboa, of the centre-right Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN), and Luisa González, of the left-wing Revolución Ciudadana (RC). As measured by the central bank (BCE), country risk increased from 903 points on the day of the election, to 1,162 points the following day. Noboa, who polls had suggested was in with a chance of winning the election outright in the first round by securing 50% of the vote or 40% with a ten-percentage-point lead, has sought to cast doubt on the official results. Noboa’s lead has narrowed as the final votes are tallied and some votes are recounted. The latest results from the national electoral council (CNE) show him on 44.18% of the vote, with González on 43.94%, with 98.32% of votes counted. Noboa yesterday said in an interview with Argentine newspaper Clarín that there had been “a lot of irregularities” and “things that don’t seem right” and raised doubts over the electoral observation carried out by the Organization of American States (OAS). He also claimed without providing any evidence that criminal groups intimidated voters into supporting González, saying that voters “were threatened by armed groups so that they voted for the candidate that represents them”.