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Security & Strategic Review - February 2025

​COLOMBIA: ELN offensive puts conflict at ‘dangerous inflection point’

A rapid offensive by the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) guerrilla group in north-eastern Colombia has all but dashed hopes for a negotiated peace settlement and has forced an uncharacteristically bellicose response from President Gustavo Petro. While the government concentrates its efforts on preventing the ELN from seizing control of a long stretch of the border with Venezuela, other regions are also seeing a sudden escalation in violence. On 20 January Elizabeth Dickinson, senior analyst for Colombia at NGO International Crisis Group, warned that “escalations on various frontlines have taken the conflict to a very dangerous inflection point” that could deteriorate into “a new cycle of war”.

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