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Security & Strategic Review - October 2024
COLOMBIA: ELN peace plan teeters on the brink
Securing the negotiated demobilisation of Colombia’s largest guerrilla group, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), has been the central focus of President Gustavo Petro’s flagship ‘total peace’ initiative since he took office in August 2022. The government is now rapidly recalibrating the likelihood of achieving that goal. A bilateral ceasefire expired on 3 August after the government refused to bow to an ELN ultimatum, ending a year of relative peace between the two sides. Rescuing the dialogue process still seemed possible during the following weeks despite regular ELN attacks on oil infrastructure. However, a deal now seems far more doubtful following a heavy mortar attack on a military base in Arauca department on 17 September, which led Petro to suspend the peace talks.
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