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Weekly Report - 15 October 2015 (WR-15-41)

ARGENTINA: Reaching out to the undecided

With under two weeks to go until polling day, the leading candidates in the Argentine presidential election are attempting to reach out beyond their core supporters. Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FPV) faction of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists), has been seeking to reassure Argentina’s business community in an attempt to gain enough support to win outright in the first round on 25 October. Meanwhile Mauricio Macri, from the centre-right opposition Cambiemos coalition, is attempting to reach out to non-Kirchnerista Peronists, while Sergio Massa, from Una Nueva Alternativa (UNA), is promoting a tough line on law and order issues in the hope of securing a place in a second round run-off.

Speaking at the IDEA business institute in Mar del Plata on 14 October, Scioli sought to strike a conciliatory tone, following the tense relationship between Argentina’s business community and the government under President Cristina Fernández. “Every fiscal, financial or commercial issue that we have to review in this context of low international prices will be reviewed to ensure profitability and to move forward,” Scioli said.

Scioli’s campaign has also hinted at a less protectionist approach under his presidency, under the slogan: ‘more Argentina in the world and more of the world in Argentina’. Earlier this week, Scioli played the part of an international statesman by visiting Tabaré Vázquez in Uruguay and Dilma Rousseff in Brazil. According to local press reports, he told the Brazilian president that he would put an end to some of the import permits that have blocked foreign goods from entering Argentina, and which have been questioned by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Macri the Peronist

Macri, conscious that his polling numbers have stalled over recent weeks, has been attempting to appeal to traditional Peronists. As well as identifying himself strongly with the agricultural sector, which has long been at loggerheads with the government over export tariffs, Macri has attempted to reclaim Peronism for the centre-right. “Some call themselves Peronists but they dedicate themselves to fiddling the poverty statistics,” he said at the unveiling of a statue to Juan Domingo Perón. “But Peronism is not arrogance and pride, Peronism is social justice, the fight for equal opportunities and zero poverty in Argentina. That is the Peronism that I champion.”

On 14 October, Macri also joined a protest march held in Buenos Aires by three of the country’s leading agricultural organisations. Addressing the marchers, Macri declared, “in December [when he hopes to take over as president] we are going to fix clear rules of the game […] We are going to have zero export taxes for regional economies, zero limitations on exports.”

Massa highlights insecurity

Massa, who appears to be gaining on Macri in recent polls, gave a speech promising to introduce “a unifying programme of all the security forces in urban centres” and “to decree at a national level and in the province of Buenos Aires a security emergency.” With opinion polls showing that insecurity remains one of the most serious concerns of Argentines, despite continued strong support for the government, Massa’s tactic appears sound. Massa has also starting focusing his attacks on Scioli, rather than Macri, criticising Scioli’s term as governor of Buenos Aires province and insisting that schools and hospitals in the region had deteriorated under his rule. Once again, he highlighted Scioli’s absence from the presidential debate on 4 October.

  • Central bank plans

Both Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa have made it clear they would dismiss Alejandro Vanoli as the president of the central bank if they win. Vanoli has come under fire in recent years due to rising inflation and the emergence of foreign currency black markets. Both Macri and Massa had vowed in the past to put an end to restrictions on the US dollar trade, which Vanoli initially backed. Vanoli has hinted he supports the policy changes promised by Scioli, who has argued that those restrictions could be lifted “gradually”.

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