Development: At a meeting with her closest ministers on 9 August, Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff decided to hold talks with the leaders of all her coalition allies this week in an attempt to avoid impeachment.
Significance: The political crisis in Brazil is deteriorating rapidly. Over the weekend (8-9 August), one economic consultancy, Arko Advice, put the chances of the President being impeached as high as 40%. Last week, one of the founders of the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), José Dirceu, was accused of masterminding the Petrobras corruption scandal; the federal chamber of deputies, including over 50 deputies from the PT itself, voted against the President’s wishes on salary increases for the judiciary; two parties left the ruling coalition; and the vice-president, Michel Temer, said, ominously, that “someone needs to be found who can reunite Brazil”.
- Last night Rousseff met with 13 ministers, plus Temer, from the nominally-allied Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB). According to Edinho Silva, the minister for social communication, the main result of the meeting was the decision for the President to meet individually with each of the leaders of the 17 parties that make up the ruling coalition. “We are aware of the political difficulties we are facing, but we are confident that these difficulties can be overcome by dialogue” Silva said. Silva added that the government had “lost” 362 congressional deputies and it now needed to win them back.
- Various other ideas are being kicked around the Planalto presidential palace in an attempt to stop Rousseff’s collapse in support. One is to reduce the number of ministries. At present there are 39 ministerial portfolios. But given that the government coalition is only stitched together by the ministerial jobs available it seems likely that such a move would further exacerbate the crisis. It is also rumoured that the PMDB may gain some ministerial positions at the expense of the PT, but again that is likely to increase the mutinous mood in the President’s own party yet further.
- Last week the leadership of the Partido Democrático Trabalhista and the Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro announced that from now on they would vote independently from the government in congress. Between them, the two parties control 45 seats in the chamber of deputies. According to reports in the local press, the government is now trying to ensure that it has at least 200 loyal deputies who will resist any attempts to initiate impeachment proceedings. At least two-thirds of the 513 federal deputies need to support the process for it to move forward.
Looking Ahead: Today (10 August) Rousseff is due to receive a number of federal senators for lunch. The federal senate is less restive and more supportive of the President. It could block impeachment proceedings.
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