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LatinNews Daily - 30 March 2015

Opposition wins crucial last seat in El Salvador

Development: On 27 March, El Salvador’s supreme electoral tribunal (TSE) finally announced the official results of the country’s legislative and municipal elections, nearly a month after they were staged on 1 March.

Significance: The painstakingly slow count was compounded by the fact that the very final deputy to be confirmed by the TSE in the 84-seat legislative assembly won by fewer than 100 votes. This meant that the ballot papers and tally sheets related to this seat, which contained irregularities, had to be recounted, not least because so much was rested on the outcome. In the event, the main right-wing opposition Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (Arena) won the final seat to finish with 35 deputies, while the ruling left-wing Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN) won 31 seats. The result is a serious blow to President Salvador Sánchez Cerén, who took office just nine months ago, and will now lack the ability to muster a simple majority for the meat of his five-year term (three more years to 2018) with which to advance security, education and health reforms, and social initiatives.

  • The natural alliances that Arena and the FMLN forge with smaller parties will result in two equal blocs of 42 seats apiece in the legislative assembly, meaning that Arena will be able to stymie initiatives sent down by the Sánchez Cerén administration. The FMLN has generally managed to forge a legislative alliance with Gran Alianza por la Unidad Nacional (Gana), the moderate right-wing party composed principally of Arena dissidents, which won 11 seats. This would form a bloc of 42, just one shy of a simple majority.

  • Arena, for its part, enjoys alliances with the Partido de Concertación Nacional (PCN) and the Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC), which won six seats and one seat respectively, also producing a bloc of 42. Three of Arena’s seats were actually won in alliance with the PCN anyway. The final seat, which required reopening certain ballot boxes, was in the department of San Salvador, where Arena edged out Cambio Democrático (CN), a small left-leaning party that backs the FMLN.
  • Solace for the FMLN comes from its victory in the mayoralty of San Salvador, by far the most important municipal position up for grabs. San Salvador has provided a springboard to the presidency in the past, and the incoming mayor, Nayib Bukele, is being touted as a star of the future. The 34-year-old Bukele is a new breed of politician, shunning the FMLN’s traditional red, for instance, during campaign rallies.
  • The loss of San Salvador is a bitter pill to swallow for Arena, but it enjoyed the sweetness of success elsewhere – and in some unexpected places. Roberto D’Aubuisson Jr wrested Santa Tecla, the capital of the south-western department of La Libertad, from the tight grip of the FMLN. Oscar Ortiz, now Vice-President, had won five consecutive elections for the FMLN in Santa Tecla dating back to 2000.

  • Arena also ended up with a greater number of the 262 municipalities in the country’s 14 departments than the FMLN. Arena won 129 in total (10 in alliances with the PCN or PDC), to 85 for the FMLN. The FMLN won the majority of the biggest municipalities though, and will govern over the largest proportion of the population when the new officials take up their positions on 1 May.

Looking Ahead: The results are not just bad for the government of President Sánchez Cerén but also the country, as legislative stalemate is the last thing it needs when the economy faces a secular slump, which urgently requires a political consensus to redress. The president of the central bank, Doctor Oscar Cabrera, revealed on 27 March that the economy grew by 2% in 2014, the lowest in Central America.

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