President Rafael Correa managed to duck a potentially awkward referendum on the exploitation of oil in the Yasuní national reserve earlier this year, but he might not be able to avoid a referendum on his plans to amend the constitution to be able to stand for indefinite re-election. The political opposition is preparing to gather signatures to demand a referendum in late 2015 on a reform that has not even been approved by the national assembly yet. Correa insists that such a referendum holds no fears for him – and his high approval rating suggests his confidence is not misplaced – but it could still be a threat. Correa is well aware that the opposition dealt a blow to his ruling Alianza País (AP) in February’s municipal elections in part by persuading voters of the dangers of the concentration of power.
The leader of Movimiento Creando Oportunidades (CREO), Guillermo Lasso, who finished second to President Correa in the last presidential elections in 2013 with 23% of the vote (the equivalent of 1.95m votes), is behind the drive to hold a referendum on indefinite re-election. At present, the constitutional court is deliberating over whether the national assembly can alter the constitution itself to allow indefinite re-election or whether a referendum is required to make the amendment. Lasso said that if the court goes for the first of these options then CREO will immediately launch a signature-gathering drive with a view to holding a referendum on the matter in September 2015. “Alternation of power is vital in a democracy,” Lasso said.
Lasso expressed his confidence that there is public demand for a referendum on the matter. A poll on 27 June by local pollster Cedatos suggested that 61% of Ecuadoreans would like to be consulted in a referendum, while 53% disagreed with the national assembly being able to approve the constitutional amendment itself.
President Correa appears unperturbed. On his weekly television and radio programme on 9 August he said that he would only seek re-election in 2017 “if the circumstances merit it” and as “a last resort” in the face of a surge in support for “the Right”. “They want to gather signatures, the Right with the Left, and some of the indigenous leadership: see how they conspire against the [Citizens’] Revolution,” Correa declared.
Correa also wished the opposition luck in convening a referendum, saying that he would add other issues to the public consultation, such as the recent trade accord with the European Union (EU) (see below), or the installation of electric induction cookers in households instead of natural gas, which is part of the government’s plan to start replacing some 3.5m kitchens with gas stoves in 2015 and remove the fuel subsidy. Correa added that “If we lose [a referendum on indefinite re-election], I would thank them [the opposition]; believe me it is a very serious dilemma for me.”
The ‘Left’ lumped by Correa with the Right and indigenous leadership includes the Marxist-Leninist Movimiento Popular Democrático (MPD), which is affiliated to the teachers’ unions; and Movimiento Ruptura de los 25, a founding member of the ruling AP coalition. In early August, both parties were stripped of their registration by the national electoral council (CNE), along with two traditional parties on the Right - the Partido Renovador Institucional Acción Nacional (Prian), of banana magnate Alvaro Noboa; and the Partido Roldosista Ecuatoriano (PRE), of former president Abdalá Bucaram, who was dismissed by congress for alleged mental incapacity in 1997 after less than a year in office and is living in exile in Panama.
The CNE threw out an appeal by the four parties and ratified a ruling it issued in early July arguing that they had failed either to obtain sufficient votes (4%) in two consecutive elections (legislative last year and municipal this year); or to return three deputies to the national assembly; or to win 8% of mayoralties, in order to retain their status. The CNE adopted these thresholds in a change to the electoral law two years ago.
Ruptura de los 25 issued a statement accusing President Correa of “advancing an authoritarian system concentrating power”. Ruptura, the original forajidos (the name given to the protesters who brought about the downfall of President Lucio Gutiérrez in 2005), left the AP in January 2011 in protest at a referendum calling for constitutional and judicial reforms which, it argued, betrayed the principles of the ‘Citizens’ Revolution’. At the time, Ruptura had two cabinet members and four congressional deputies, but it has since failed to thrive outside of the AP umbrella.
- Parties wound up in Ecuador
Three other parties - Concentración de Fuerzas Populares (CFP), Unión Demócrata Cristiana (UDC) and Izquierda Democrática (ID) - were eliminated by the CNE when changes to the electoral law were introduced two years ago.
- Bucaram
Abdalá Bucaram Pulley, the former president’s son and the PRE’s sole deputy, reacted to the party’s forced dissolution by accusing the government of a calculated political strategy “to eliminate all political organisations and construct one sole political party in accordance with the government’s vision”. The PRE and the other three parties wound up by the CNE have one last chance to appeal open to them - the Tribunal Contencioso Electoral (TCE) - but they are also mooting turning to international forums, such as the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), which they hope might issue precautionary measures on the grounds that the decision violates due process.
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